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Saturday, January 6

Things from my Newsblur; 2018 - Part I

A New Year means a new start for “Things from my Newsblur”, with renewed hopes of greater frequency.  As usual, the more serious and the finance-orientated things are nearer the end. 

Pep Guardiola is the best football manager in the world, and with him Manchester City have become (by far) the best team in England and a real challenger in Europe.  This is only the start of City’s plan though, and like all amazing and disruptive plans it is part inspiration and part evil genius.  (The Guardian, Giles Tremlett) 

Inspired by Moneyball math, and with the plethora of data now available (thanks Wikipedia!) why not make a semi-serious attempt to quantify the Greatest Generals of all time?  Spoiler alert:  It’s only battle tactics, not overall strategy.  Also, no method is perfect, and Generals from the old days did much better than modern ones; the benefits of getting to fight many battles!  (Towards Data Science, Ethan Arsht) 

The machines are coming, the machines are coming, don’t panic!!!!   If they’re anything like this bot, then future JK Rowling’s (and the rest of us) are safe for a while! (The Guardian, Allison Flood) 

Scott Galloway was well ahead of sentiment turning on the Big 4 Tech companies (Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Google).  I suspect it’s still likely early in that process.  This piece from back in September has a good look at their weaknesses and what they could do to protect themselves.  (L2, Scott Galloway) 

Scott Galloway (of the previous) post has also been arguing that the regulation of Big Tech will likely start in Europe (and potentially some red states with ambitious AG’s).  Europe suffers from all the social and privacy costs, but gets few of the benefits from US Tech companies that minimize their European taxes.  This ruling by the European Court of Justice, with no possibility of appeal, that Uber is a taxi company rather than a technology company is likely the start not the end of such moves.  (Bloomberg View, Leonid Bershidsky) 

Regular readers know that Our Man loves a good oral history.  With the infamous Black Monday, when the Dow and S&P 500 both fell over 20%, turning 30 in October – what better time for an oral history!  Richard Dewey gets a truly impressive cross-section of market practitioners (there are too many for OM to list) to recollect the events of the day and those around it.  (Bloomberg Markets, Richard Dewey)


And finally, while President Trump was likely the most over-reported US story of 2017, OM think it is clear that the most under-reported was ‘Opioids in the US’.

The CDC released figures showing 63,600 died from drug overdoses in 2016, with the final total for 2017 expected to be worse.  To put those numbers into context, “58,000 US soldiers died in the entire Vietnam War, nearly 55,000 Americans died of car crashes at the peak of such deaths in 1972, more than 43,000 died due to HIV/AIDS during that epidemic's peak in 1995, and nearly 40,000 died of guns during the peak of firearm deaths in 1993.”

Here are four recent stories to ponder further. 
This is How the Opioid Crisis is Changing America (Bloomberg Politics, Jeanna Smialek)

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