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Sunday, March 10

Things from my Newsblur; 2024 Part I

OM aims to publish six Newsblur posts this year instead of waiting to accumulate numerous articles. Thus, expect shorter posts with 4-5 articles but with more timely content.

The Best Day.  The Very Best Day.
OM loves football (aka soccer), especially his team - AFC Wimbledon. Recently, they faced their hated rivals in a heated match, echoing John Green's sentiment that "football is the most important of all unimportant things."  I’ll spare you all the details, but this is a short 5min video that OM will come back to whenever he needs a pick me-up!

For those who don’t want to watch it; as OM tells his kids – prepare, give your best, and control what you can.  Success isn’t guaranteed, but sometimes – just sometimes – you will score a 94th minute winner in front of your fans, the roof will be lifted off and everything will make sense for a little while.   
(John Green/@vlogbrothers on YouTube)

The Profile Interview: Rob Henderson on Why We Hold ‘Luxury Beliefs’ and Develop ‘Status Anxiety’
A slight departure from the norm but I think a good one;  I have read Rob Henderon’s blog for a few years now and I’m working my way through his just released memoir (Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class).   I like them both a lot but it’s not for everyone, amongst other things it requires holding conflicting views of the author and some of his ideas at the same time.  For those who are curious, The Profile’s (also a good read) interview is a good starting point.

The most interesting of Henderson’s ideas is the term he coined, ‘luxury beliefs’, which he defines as “ideas and opinions that confer status on the affluent, while often inflicting costs on the lower classes and everyone else.  A core feature of a luxury belief is that the believer is sheltered from the consequences of his or her beliefs.”
(The Profile)

Things I Don’t Know About AI
There is no shortage of opinions on AI, but this is an interesting way to think about what we don’t know.   Written by a Founder/VC, the opening sentences sum it up; “In most markets, the more time passes the clearer things become. In generative AI (“AI”), it has been the opposite. The more time passes, the less I think I actually understand.”
(Elad Blog)

Can Trade Intervention Lead to Freer Trade
OM believes that there’s something wrong with the version of ‘free trade’ today, and that the next 50-years are likely to see something quite different from the last 50-years.   Michael Pettis article delves more into this, and his introduction sums the issues up well!

“A well-functioning trading regime would permit neither the large, persistent trade imbalances that characterize the current global trading system nor the perverse flow of capital from developing economies to advanced economies. Global trade needs new rules that encourage a return to the benefits of free trade and comparative advantage.”
(China Financial Markets)

Tuesday, February 6

2023: Fourth Quarter Review

Portfolio Update
All of OM’s portfolio changes happened at the start of November:
- European/UK Financials:  OM built the recently discussed position in European/UK Financials.   
- Biotech:  OM increased the Biotech position by ~1.75%.
- Shorts/Hedges - Higher Medium-Term Rates:  OM exited the position in PFIX at the start of November, as the 10-Year Treasury traded around 5% meaning that higher rates for longer were finally being priced in.  The timing proved fortunate as subsequent economic data and commentary from various Fed/Treasury officials led markets to change their view and expect numerous rate cuts in 2024.

Performance and Review
OM’s portfolio rose with the markets during the final quarter of the year; its +10.73% increase fell between the S&P 500 (+11.69%) and the MSCI World (+9.84%).  This resulted in the portfolio ending the year +31.29% for 2023, which was ahead of markets (S&P 500: +26.29% and MSCI World: +23.18%).    While a solitary year means little, 2023 ended up being decent overall performance especially considering the portfolio protected capital in 2022.

Fourth Quarter Attribution


While there has been much talk of the ‘Magnificent 7’ (aka MAG7), a small cadre of technology-related stocks driving the market higher with limited contributions from others, that was not the case for OM.    While OM owns none of the MAG7, it was in many ways close to an ideal year for the portfolio.   
The portfolio benefited from the timing/maturity of its core exposures; the Shipping/Tanker theme drove performance in 2022 and early 2023, before handing over to the Uranium positions that contributed over +1,000bps to performance in the second half of the year.   With the Shipping/Tanker theme in its ‘beginning of the end’ phase, it will likely continue to be cut back and shrink during 2024.  Uranium is – after a long wait – finally in the sweet spot of its investment lifecycle as the opportunities on the demand side, challenges on the supply side, and the material gap between demand/supply are now beginning to be understood by industry players and reflected in market pricing.   More generally, OM’s belief remains that the demand/supply trends we are seeing in the Uranium sector are likely to be repeated in many other mining/commodity sectors in the coming years.

The turbulent and uncertain markets in 2022/2023 were also generous in helping offer up new opportunities (European Financials) and the chance to increase exposure to some existing ones (Biotech).  This is something that has continued into the early part of 2024, with OM having started new positions in Argentina (Dislocation) and American Re-industrialization (Thematic) and added to the Brazil position.

The portfolio’s fourth quarter performance was largely reflective of the market, with everything contributing to performance.   The standout was the exposure to European/UK Fins (+197bps) that rose 20%+ as their third quarter earnings began to further highlight the value proposition for investors.  The portfolio’s Blockchain (+177bps) exposure was helpful, with the position in ETHE benefiting from the expectation of a Bitcoin ETF getting SEC approval in January 2024, and the belief that an Ethereum one would be next.

The non-Uranium commodity positions continue to lag, with Tin (+4bps) and Commodities (+8bps) making marginal gains.   In many ways there are similarities to where the Uranium (+186bps in Q4-23) position was in 2021, with clear signs of the coming stresses in the market visible to the few who are looking.        

Elsewhere, the weakness in the US Dollar helped the international positions; India (+56bps), Greece (+48bps), and Brazil (+104bps).  The rise in rates early in Q4 saw OM exit the Short/Hedge exposure (via PFIX, +16bps), while the subsequent change in rate expectations helped Technology – 4th Industrial Revolution (+26bps) and Biotech (+101bps) names rally strongly in the second half of Q4.   There were also decent contributions from the Shipping/Tankers theme (+122bps) and the Idiosyncratic names (+23bps).


Portfolio (as at 12/31/23 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 45.4%
29.6% - Uranium
10.1% - European/UK Financials
5.7% - Brazil

Thematic: 44.5%
14.7% - Shipping/Tankers 
6.9% - Tin 
5.9% - Biotech: 4th Industrial Revolution 
5.8% - India 
4.2% - Greece 
3.7% - Blockchain/Crypto 
1.9% - Software: 4th Industrial Revolution 
1.4% - Commodities/Mining 

Idiosyncratic: 5.8%
5.8% - Equities 

Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%

Cash: 4.3%

Disclaimer:  Nothing above represents a recommendation in any way, shape or form so please don’t even think of trying to take it that way.  For added clarity, while Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned that’s a terrible reason for anyone else to do so.  Our Man also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you given your own circumstances/risk tolerance/etc.  



Sunday, January 7

European/UK Banks - Dislocation postion (Q4-23)

During the middle of the fourth quarter of 2023, Our Man built a dislocation position in European (and specifically UK) Banks.   The crux of the thesis can be summed up as European banks spent the last 15 years using profits to rebuild their capital base and are now ready to start returning those profits to investors, and it comes right at the moment when profits are likely to rise due to higher interest rates.  The market doesn’t believe this as everyone knows European Banks are terrible no good investments, and that a UK recession is coming and thus rates will go back down.

Yes, I know you’re disgusted that OM bought European/UK banks – perhaps almost as disgusted as Mrs. OM was - but that’s a necessary condition for a dislocation investment!  As a reminder, dislocation investments should be unloved by investors (hated is even better!) and thus absolutely and relatively cheap, but with something upcoming that will help change the narrative and price.

Everyone knows that European banks have been an awful investment for over a decade.  Here’s Barclays over the last 10-years; a whole of ugly!  
 


And it’s not just Barclays, the entire European Bank index has a measly 2% annualized total return over the last decade, and negative returns over 20 years!  And yes, OM did notice the 2023 demise of Credit Suisse!  

However, the terribleness of European/UK banks is a known known and it leaves Barclays – a premium UK bank (stop laughing in the back!) – trading at ~0.5x book and a P/E of 5x.  Furthermore, expectations are low with market analysts expecting little to no growth in earnings in the upcoming years.  

Yet, the dirty secret is that after spending over a decade of using profits to repair balance sheets and capital ratios, the European banks are finally ready to return some of that lucre to a moribund shareholder base.  Whisper it quietly, but European banks are much better capitalized than their US counterparts (and with far less of the not marked-to-market financial chicanery)!

 


While OM could walk you through all the financials, Barclays were kind enough to provide a slide that goes directly to the heart of the matter.
 

What’s going on here?   Well, Barclays invested in a massive long-term interest rate swap portfolio to smooth its P&L.  Their timing was suboptimal, locking in exceptionally low rates – as seen by the average hedge yield of <1% through 2022.   However, the good news is that about 20% of the portfolio (50-60B GBP) rolls off each year and in 2022 and 2023 it began being reinvested at much healthier rates (4.57% at Q3-23).  This is why the light blue bars for 2024 and 2025 are a cloudy white at the top; if the entire portfolio generated 4% (vs 1.54% as of Q3-23) then the hedge income would be ~10B GBP, off the charts compared to the dark blue bars of 2019 to 2022.

So why doesn’t the market see this or care?  Well, the uncertainty is of course over the 5-year swap rates in 2024 through 2026, given it will take till 2026 for the low rates to be rolled out of the portfolio.  For simplicity think of the portion of the hedge at 2019s rates being rolled into 2024s rates, and 2020s in 2025s, etc.  The market’s belief is that the UK economy is weak, a recession is coming and that rates will fall.   While this is certainly possible, it helps create the kind of dislocation trade that OM loves; hated, cheap and with the market already assuming bad things and pricing that in.  If nothing happens, and the UK just muddles along with rates remaining broadly similar then Barclays will profitably roll that massive hedge portfolio and the stock is seriously mispriced.  

The same analysis broadly holds true for other European banks, but OM has focused his positions on the UK since (i) inflation is likely a little more structural there (in part due to Brexit) and (ii) ‘everyone knows’ that the UK economy is weak and rates are coming down.

Disclaimer:  Nothing above represents a recommendation in any way, shape or form so please don’t even think of trying to take it that way.  For added clarity, while Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned that’s a terrible reason for anyone else to do so.  Our Man also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you given your own circumstances/risk tolerance/etc.  

Friday, October 13

2023: Third Quarter Update

Portfolio Update
All of OM’s changes to the portfolio came at the end of the quarter.
- Shipping/Tankers:  OM added a position in Frontline plc (FRO), the largest tanker company, prior to the seasonally strong fourth quarter.   While Tanker stocks have done well over the last couple of years, there remains the expectation that pricing will moderate in 2024 and 2025.

- Brazil: OM used the pull back in Brazilian stocks to increase the position.   

- Higher Medium Term Interest Rates:  In late Q3 the market finally began to accept the possibility that inflation may take longer to get under control and rates are likely to remain higher for longer.  This saw medium term interest rates climb materially, and OM took some profits by closing ~60% of the PFIX position which has more than doubled over the last 12-18mos.

Performance and Review
After lagging the markets during the first half of the year, OM’s portfolio materially outperformed in the third quarter rising +11.1% (compared to the S&P 500 TR: -3.3% and MSCI World: -2.6%).   This left the portfolio +18.6% YTD, which now leads the markets (S&P 500 TR: +13.1% and MSCI World: +12.1%).

Third Quarter Attribution
 



There were four main positive outliers that drove the performance.

•    Uranium (+884bps):   Both the spot price of uranium and the miners increased ~20% during September following the World Nuclear Association conference in London.  While OM didn’t attend the conference, he spoke with others who did and it’s clear that the tone was quite different this year.   In previous years utility buyers have been confident of securing uranium at attractive prices, but this year saw the first signs of uncertainty with the industry’s primary consultant now (finally) forecasting an under supplied market.   The move in the spot price, and continued climb in the long-term contract price, likely signals that we’re entering the middle innings of the rise.  For OM this likely means the thesis is moving from a dislocation opportunity to a thematic one.   However, much like uranium traded well below the cost of production on the downside, OM suspects that it will trade at unsustainable levels to the upside before the supply response arrives.

•    Higher Medium-Term interest rates (+283bps):  As mentioned above, during the quarter the markets finally came around to the view that interest rates were likely to remain higher for longer.  PFIX, which holds short-term bonds and medium-term swaptions, benefited both from the higher for longer move as well as the volatility that came with it.

•    Shipping/Tankers (+202bps):  Tanker shares continued to rise, with most companies announcing earnings and revenue numbers that beat expectations, paying sizable dividends, and guiding strongly.  The market continues to view the current strong fundamental performance as cyclical.  However, as OM sees it as somewhat longer lasting.  I’ll save you from hearing the thesis in depth again, but it’s one that permeates much of the portfolio; constrained supply due to long-term underperformance coupled with limited ability to quickly increase supply, all at a time when demand is inflecting upwards.

•    Idiosyncratic Equity positions (+110bps): The gains were evenly split between TPL and JOE, with the common factor being that both own attractive real estate – TPL in the Permian Basin in Texas and JOE in Florida panhandle.   Their similarities diverge there, with TPL benefitting from royalty interests and water-related services from the shale drilling in the Permian.  JOE develops resorts and residential communities, and in OM’s view has reached a critical mass of developments and population such that it makes it easier to continue to grow.

The majority of OM’s portfolio fell back with the market including positions in Software/4th Industrial Revolution (-19bps), Brazil (-12bps), Greece (-49bps), and Biotech (-34bps).  Unlike Uranium, the rest of the commodity-related exposure - Tin (-80bps) and Commodities (-50bps) – performed poorly.  The exposure to India (+50bps) was a pleasant outlier.

Finally, the Blockchain exposure (-160bps) was a meaningful drag on performance as Overstock gave back all its second quarter gains.   In Q2, Overstock made the transformative acquisition of Bed Bath and Beyond’s intellectual property and set about rebranding itself.   The third quarter reminded investors that it’s a process that will take time and relies on management execution.  Given the job management has done since taking over from ex-founder/CEO Patrick Byrne, OM has patience.

Portfolio (as at 10/2/23 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 36.2%
30.6% - Uranium (URNM, CCJ, NXE, PALAF, DNN, BNNLF, URG and SMR)
5.5% - Brazil (EWZ)

Thematic: 42.1%
14.9% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, EURN, TNK, DHT and FRO)
7.5% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
6.0% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
4.2% - Greece (GREK & ALBKY)
3.8% - Biotech: 4th Industrial Revolution (IBB & XBI)
2.3% - Blockchain/Crypto (ETHE and OSTK)
1.9% - Software: 4th Industrial Revolution (JD & WCLD)
1.4% - Commodities/Mining (FLMMF)

Idiosyncratic: 6.2%

6.2% - Equities (TPL & JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 3.0%
3.0% - Higher Medium-Term Rates (PFIX)

Cash: 12.5%

Disclaimer:  Nothing above represents a recommendation in any way, shape or form so please don’t even think of trying to take it that way.  For added clarity, while Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned that’s a terrible reason for anyone else to do so.  Our Man also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you given your own circumstances/risk tolerance/etc.  


Monday, August 14

2023: Second Quarter Update

Portfolio Update
- Uranium:  One of the benefits of having a position appropriately sized for your conviction and risk tolerance is that you are comfortable adding to it when prices and fundamentals diverge.   OM added a further 4-5% to the Uranium position in the middle of quarter.

Performance and Review
OM continued to lag equity markets (S&P 500 TR: +8.7% and MSCI World: +7.2%) with the portfolio rising +5.85% during the quarter.   This left the portfolio up +6.7% for year, well behind the S&P 500 TR (+16.9%) and the MSCI World (+15.1%).

Second Quarter Attribution


OM’s performance during the quarter can really be broken down into small number of things.  
  • Commodity-related names began to rebound during the second quarter.  Both Tin (+85bps) and Uranium (+195bps) have seen their fundamentals improve – supply remains constrained (and potentially falling) while future demand incrementally improved – though the commodity price and stock prices have done little this year.   This changed as the quarter progressed.  The other Commodities (+28bps) exposure also benefited from this change.
  • Two idiosyncratic events helped individual positions:
    • Overstock (+133bps, within Blockchain +146bps) rallied after it purchased the Bed Bath & Beyond brand and intellectual property out of bankruptcy.  The acquisition is transformative for the company allowing it to relaunch a popular brand, without any of the associated bricks & mortar business and costs.  The firm also held a successful day highlighting its Medici Ventures Blockchain assets in late May.
    •  Greek stocks (+150bps) rose sharply after the ruling New Democracy party won a landslide election. PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis has largely done a good job of reforming the Greek economy, with the government bonds now close to an investment grade rating. 
  • However, Shipping (-141bps) gave back some of its first quarter gains as OPEC cut production further and investors worried this would negatively impact rates.

Beyond these OM’s portfolio benefited from the market’s tailwind led by the positions in India (+42bps), Brazil (+32bps), Idiosyncratic Equities (+21bps), and Biotech (+13bps).  The Technology - 4th Ind Rev (-3bps) was a minor detractor as uncertainties in China negatively impacted the position in JD.   Finally, OM’s exposure to rising medium rates (PFIX, +18bps) benefited as these interest rates increased.


Portfolio (as at 6/30/23 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 27.8%
25.7% - Uranium (URNM, CCJ, NXE, PALAF, DNN, BNNLF, URG and SMR)
2.2% - Brazil (EWZ)

Thematic: 46.5%
12.4% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, EURN, TNK and DHT)
9.4% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
6.3% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
4.6% - Biotech: 4th Industrial Revolution (IBB & XBI)
5.2% - Greece (GREK & ALBKY)
4.2% - Blockchain/Crypto (ETHE and OSTK)
2.3% - Software: 4th Industrial Revolution (JD & WCLD)
2.2% - Commodities/Mining (FLMMF)

Idiosyncratic: 5.8%
5.8% - Equities (TPL & JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 5.4%
5.4% - Higher Medium-Term Rates (PFIX)

Cash: 14.5%

Disclaimer:  Nothing above represents a recommendation in any way, shape or form so please don’t even think of trying to take it that way.  For added clarity, while Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned that’s a terrible reason for anyone else to do so.  Our Man also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you given your own circumstances/risk tolerance/etc.  



Thursday, July 6

Things from my Newsblur; 2023 Part II

 As summer rolls around, here’s Part II for your beach reading!

The Man Who Broke Bowling
If you’re anything like OM, you occasionally find yourself at the bowling alley throwing a sad mix of 7s and 8s with the odd strike thrown in.   You’re certainly not like Jason Belmonte, who’s revolutionized the sport by throwing…two-handed!   
(Eric Willis, GQ magazine)


Relax for the Same Result

This is an old post that OM goes back to every so often when stressed and rushing to get something done by a deadline.   It’s a good reminder of the unproductive effort due to stress and how it neither helps the quality or speed of our work.
(Derek Sivers)


What Will Transformers Transform?
As regular readers will know, OM is a fan of Dr. Rodney Brooks and often posts his year-end update of prior predictions.  With everything that’s been written about Artificial Intelligence and GPT models (both the good and the bad), his article from a couple of months ago is worth rereading.  The punchline; “Calm down people. We neither have super powerful AI around the corner, nor the end of the world caused by AI about to come down upon us.”
(Rodney Brooks)


30,000 Reasons Wages aren’t Falling
We’ve spent much of the last year being told recession is imminent, unemployment is about to spike, and that wage hikes are coming to an end.  While we might be getting closer to that point, OM suspects that the world has also changed somewhat; that we are moving from a world that favoured capital to one that benefits labor.  It’s been something OM has been meaning to write about for a while now, but it’s a complicated subject and he’s never quite found the right words.  The good news is that Erik Renander found some of them…
(Erik Renander, Your Weekend Reading).


Turkey: How Mehmet Simsek convinced Erdogan to drop his low interest rate policy
A portion of OM’s portfolio is in dislocation investing, where on first read the idea will look ugly.  Hopefully, kind reader your initial reaction will be “WTF???  Are you insane!” but will slowly trend towards “that’s weird, but kinda interesting!” over time (e.g. Uranium).  The key is being able to invest when valuation is cheap, fundamentals are turning, and there’s a narrative to draw others in!   Well, Turkey is exceptionally cheap, there are hints of a change, and it has the benefit that it can be geopolitically promiscuous between the US and China.  However, especially after Erdogan’s recent victory at the polls, it has lacked a narrative that will draw investors in.  Perhaps this major change in economic policy is the start of a ‘normalization’ in Turkey that at least removes the negative narrative.
(Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye)


This is Biology’s Century – We’re not Ready for it
The phrase ‘biology’s century’ has been around for a while but has so far accurately encapsulated the 2000s with a record number of drugs approved including novel treatments for cancer, diabetes, numerous vaccines and the first gene therapies.  However, biotech’s limits are now testing the medical infrastructure that we have built and many of the solutions favor the expedient over the rigorous.
(Matthew Harper, STAT)

Sunday, April 30

2023: First Quarter Update

Portfolio Update
There were no changes to the portfolio during the Quarter.

Performance and Review
OM’s portfolio posted a small gain of +0.8% to start 2023, which lagged the rising equity markets (S&P 500: +7.5% and MSCI World: +7.4%).  

First Quarter Attribution
 
The first quarter was largely uneventful for the portfolio with the positive performance driven by the exposure to Shipping/Tankers (+237bps), which continued their strong run.  The long-run structural case for Shipping/Tankers is one that is seen elsewhere in the portfolio; constrained supply due to long-term underperformance coupled with limited ability to quickly increase supply, all at a time when demand is inflecting upwards.  For tankers, the supply-side is the most attractive in decades for tankers with the oldest fleet in history, an order book (as % of fleet) at multi-decade lows and shipyards contracted out through 2025.  While demand had been steadily inflecting upwards, it jumped more meaningfully in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war which altered hitherto efficient supply routes.  The upside for an investor in these types of investments is that the pain of the prior cycle means the market never quite believes that supply has rationalized, is unwilling to fund new supply and constantly expects disappointment and reversion to the historical mean.  This means that the opportunity can last longer (and potentially move higher) than it would otherwise, but the downside is that its performance will come in violent fits and starts.  This exceptional volatility – as every small downturn is assumed to be the end of the cycle, and as every rally converts more to the thesis but sees current prices extrapolated out – is the largest challenge for investors as prices will not move steadily alongside markets (i.e. there will be periods of massive under/outperformance) and investors must size positions at levels where they can suffer the downside.   

After a decade of disappointment, many commodity markets reflect this constrained supply, at a time of increasing demand, theme.  OM has concentrated the portfolio’s exposure primarily in Uranium and Tin, where the structural limits in supply and demand are particularly evident.  The Uranium exposure (-66bps) was a meaningful detractor in the quarter, while the Tin (-2bps) and other Commodity (-1bps) exposure were broadly flat.

OM benefited from some mean reversion in Blockchain (+50bps) and Software (+5bps), which had both been material underperformers in 2022.   These names were both also helped by the expectation that interest rates were peaking and would fall, following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March.   The change in interest rate expectations hurt OM’s play on Higher Medium Term Interest rates (Short/Hedges, -103bps).

Elsewhere performance was a mixed bag ranging from negative contributions in Idiosyncratic (-51bps), India (-29bps) and Biotech (-23bps) to a positive one from Greece (+71bps).  Brazil (-4bps) was a small negative detractor but remains the position OM is most likely to add to alongside Uranium and Tin.  In addition to the return of Lula as President, the Brazilian Central Bank was more proactive in managing inflation (increasing rates from 2% to almost 14% from the early 2021) and is now reaping the benefits of that.   

Portfolio (as at 4/1/23 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 22.5%
20.6% - Uranium (URNM, CCJ, NXE, PALAF, DNN, BNNLF, URG and SMR)
1.9% - Brazil (EWZ)

Thematic: 46.8%
15.1% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, EURN, TNK and DHT)
9.2% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
6.0% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
4.8% - Biotech: 4th Industrial Revolution (IBB & XLB)
4.4% - Greece (GREK & ALBKY)
3.0% - Blockchain/Crypto (ETHE and OSTK)
2.5% - Software: 4th Industrial Revolution (JD & WCLD)
2.0% - Commodities/Mining (FLMMF)

Idiosyncratic: 6.0%
6.0% - Equities (TPL & JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 5.5%
5.5% - Higher Medium-Term Rates (PFIX)

Cash: 19.3%

Disclaimer:  Nothing above represents a recommendation in any way, shape or form so please don’t even think of trying to take it that way.  For added clarity, while Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned that’s a terrible reason for anyone else to do so.  Our Man also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you given your own circumstances/risk tolerance/etc.