Things from my Newsblur; 2025 Part I

While it’s been a while before this first Things from my Newsblur, this post is both longer than normal and wider ranging so there should be at least one thing for everyone to enjoy.   

League One: The Return (Main Edition)
As many of you know OM is a huge AFC Wimbledon fan and was in London to see their League Two Playoff Semi-Final (with one of his sons) and subsequent Play-off Final win (with both sons, family and friends!).   We’re somewhere in this mass of 28,000 AFC Wimbledon fans, when the winning goal goes in! 
As befits AFCW’s history it was a wild ride including getting into the playoffs thanks to a goal from player who had a heart attack earlier in the game (!).
(REPD, SW19’s Army) 

 

Rules of Thumb vs. Rules of Big Toe
A nice short post separating out the wisdom of others (“rules of thumb”) from those lessons we have learned ourselves; there’s nothing like personal pain as a teacher!   
(Matt Ziegler, Cultish Creative) 

 

Handle Hard Well
A great article on handling adversity and how it matters, which neatly ties together starting NFL quarterbacks and the markets.
(Ted Lamade, A Program that Lasts) 

 

What Mr. Beast Teaches Us about the American Dream
If you have tween kids, like OM, then you almost certainly know who Mr. Beast is.  This article looks at his leaked 36-page internal memo that documents his approach and standards.   The amazing thing about Mr. Beast’s success, in contrast to prior mediums, is how little creative freedom it provides him
(Matt Johnson, Neuroscienceof.com)
Read also: The Mozart of the Attention Economy: why MrBeast is the world’s biggest YouTube star 

 

Manifest:  The Inevitability of Trump & Tariffs
If you cannot understand the inevitability of Trade, Trump and Tariffs then force yourself to read this.  It’s probably the most comprehensive/accurate attempt to show how many issues are linked to each other. 
(Hunter, Lewis Enterprises) 

 

Ain’t misapplyin’
More on the Trump tariffs; while they were immediately decried by ‘serious’ economists, there are a whole litany of flaws in using past studies (often of emerging market economies) as gospel for what will happen to the US.
(Seriously, Marvin?!)
For a different take, you can also read Michael Pettis (in Foreign Affairs) who argues that economists have drawn the wrong lessons from the failures of 1930s. 

 

AI and Work (Some Predictions)
A good way to start thinking about AI and work, while understanding that things will change as AI involves.  AI is already very useful in text production, smart search and computer programming but the article helps think about what’s next.
(Cal Newport, his blog) 

 

The Anti-Social Century
While it will be years before we fully understand the impact of the COVID lockdowns, some things have become clear.  In the post-COVID world, people are spending more time alone than ever and its changes are wider reaching than we realize.
(Derek Thompson, The Atlantic)

Things from my Newsblur; 2024 Part III

Some final things from my Newsblur to finish up the year, including helpful 2025 advice (from Cal Newport) and additional information on the development of the core theses in Uranium and Tin.   I hope everyone has a happy holidays, and a great 2025! 

 

How to Stop Being Lazy and Get More Done
For OM – and I’m guessing most of you – time is the primary constraint and to the to-do list never seems to shrink!   As OM tries to figure how to get more done, Cal Newport has become essential reading.  Here Erik Barker breaks down 5 of Cal’s secrets to better managing time and getting more done.   
(Erik Barker, Barking Up the Wrong Tree) 

 

The Tao of Cal
If the above piqued your interest then read on!  Cal Newport has proposed a lot of ideas on how the digital environment impacts our lives, both professionally and personally, and how we should respond.  This article serves as a primer that summarizes all of his major ideas.  There are some good new year resolutions in there, and it’s an article that OM is likely to come back to many times in 2025.
(Cal Newport, on his blog - one of the few you should regularly read, even if you don't use Newsblur!) 

 

Why luxury cheese is being targeted by black market criminals
An article inspired by the Neal’s Yard Dairy theft of £300,000-worth of high-end cheddar cheese!  It’s not just British cheddar; cheese theft has become a thing over the last few years as the price of cheese has risen, and with organized crime infiltrating the food industry.
(Dan Saladino, BBC)

 

What If We Run It Hot….?
For all of OM’s professional life central banks been focused on inflation - especially consumer price rises - over almost everything else.  While many of us, especially in Finance, are happy to ignore both the implied and the unintended consequences of this, the political costs are now beginning to be felt.   With the return of President Trump to the White House, Kuppy looks at what might happen if they economy is allowed to run hot and generate higher than normal inflation.
(Harris Kupperman, Praetorian Capital) 

 

The Eucalyptus Tree Goes to the Moon: The Koala’s Visit to Goma & the Bisie Tin Mine
OM’s day job means he cannot visit the companies he owns, let alone do site visits for some of the mining names.   In the case of Alphamin Resources this matters; the broad thesis is clear, the asset quality isn’t disputed, but it’s located in North Kivu, in the Democratic Republic of Congo.   Fortunately, while OM can’t go visit the site it helps to know folks who can – so if you’ve ever wanted to know more about Alphamin's actual mine, this is the article for you.
(The Koala, Substack) 

 

Repositioning in Uranium
OM’s largest position is still in Uranium.   Trader Ferg gives a good update on Uranium markets, including recapping the simple thesis behind the investment and the incremental positive changes that have occurred in recent years.   While the Uranium opportunity has seen the easy money made, the next leg of the move is substantially less risky than it was a few years ago.
(Trader Ferg, Substack)

Things from my Newsblur; 2024 Part II

It’s been a while since OM appeared in your inboxes, and so what better way to return than to catch-up on some of the things he’s been reading over the summer and early Fall.

AFC Wimbledon and the Pillars of a Perfect Football Club
OM is a fan and season ticket holder at AFC Wimbledon and will never tire of sharing their story.   OM was in London to see this victory over our rivals (not a derby!!!), and Daniel Storey captures the spirit of the day and what makes the club special.
(Daniel Storey, iNews)

Magic Pill – Johann Hari & the New “Miracle” Weight-Loss Drugs
Journalist Johann Hari takes a long look at Ozempic, and other GLP-1s, which have skyrocketed in popularity as a treatment for obesity.   Unlike most who’ve talked GLP-1s, Hari is on them and seen the benefits firsthand but also willing to take a critical look at how the drugs work and what it might mean for the future.   For those who prefer these things in podcast format, he’s spoken about it on Modern Wisdom and to Jay Shetty.
(via Tim Ferris blog.)

What Makes Katie Ledecky Great?
OM was having a drink recently with a friend and we were discussing investing, and the difference between mastery and greatness came up.  We concluded that greatness endures often through finding that balance between the contradictions of creativity and discipline and between focusing on process and outcome.  This article on Katie Ledecky – an unquestioned all-time swimming great – touches on those topics.
(Louisa Thomas)

Experts vs. Imitators
While we all want the best information, we are increasingly seeing people described as or claiming to be experts who are not.  Here’s a handy way to think about expertise and those who imitate it, including what to look out for and focus on.
(Farnam Street)

Inside the Biggest FBI Sting Operation in History
The wild tale of the Anom sting operation, where the FBI created/managed a secure messaging app, which became the go-to app for several global criminal groups.  The FBI worked in collaboration with law enforcement around the world, to help spread the app and track the messages before eventually making a string of arrests.
(Joseph Cox, Wired)

The Big Bad BREIT Post
The story of BREIT, the largest non-traded REIT in the world, is as old as finance - a liquidity mismatch between a product and the underlying asset, an array of misaligned incentives, and investors chasing performance with little regard for risk.  Thus, the tale of its issues when stresses hit the market in 2022 wasn’t new or particularly surprising.   What was is the lengths that the manager (and its agents/representatives) went to try to prevent the tale being told.  
(Phil Bak, BakStack)

Things from my Newsblur; 2024 Part I

OM aims to publish six Newsblur posts this year instead of waiting to accumulate numerous articles. Thus, expect shorter posts with 4-5 articles but with more timely content.

The Best Day.  The Very Best Day.
OM loves football (aka soccer), especially his team - AFC Wimbledon. Recently, they faced their hated rivals in a heated match, echoing John Green's sentiment that "football is the most important of all unimportant things."  I’ll spare you all the details, but this is a short 5min video that OM will come back to whenever he needs a pick me-up!

For those who don’t want to watch it; as OM tells his kids – prepare, give your best, and control what you can.  Success isn’t guaranteed, but sometimes – just sometimes – you will score a 94th minute winner in front of your fans, the roof will be lifted off and everything will make sense for a little while.   
(John Green/@vlogbrothers on YouTube)

The Profile Interview: Rob Henderson on Why We Hold ‘Luxury Beliefs’ and Develop ‘Status Anxiety’
A slight departure from the norm but I think a good one;  I have read Rob Henderon’s blog for a few years now and I’m working my way through his just released memoir (Troubled: A Memoir of Foster Care, Family, and Social Class).   I like them both a lot but it’s not for everyone, amongst other things it requires holding conflicting views of the author and some of his ideas at the same time.  For those who are curious, The Profile’s (also a good read) interview is a good starting point.

The most interesting of Henderson’s ideas is the term he coined, ‘luxury beliefs’, which he defines as “ideas and opinions that confer status on the affluent, while often inflicting costs on the lower classes and everyone else.  A core feature of a luxury belief is that the believer is sheltered from the consequences of his or her beliefs.”
(The Profile)

Things I Don’t Know About AI
There is no shortage of opinions on AI, but this is an interesting way to think about what we don’t know.   Written by a Founder/VC, the opening sentences sum it up; “In most markets, the more time passes the clearer things become. In generative AI (“AI”), it has been the opposite. The more time passes, the less I think I actually understand.”
(Elad Blog)

Can Trade Intervention Lead to Freer Trade
OM believes that there’s something wrong with the version of ‘free trade’ today, and that the next 50-years are likely to see something quite different from the last 50-years.   Michael Pettis article delves more into this, and his introduction sums the issues up well!

“A well-functioning trading regime would permit neither the large, persistent trade imbalances that characterize the current global trading system nor the perverse flow of capital from developing economies to advanced economies. Global trade needs new rules that encourage a return to the benefits of free trade and comparative advantage.”
(China Financial Markets)

Things from my Newsblur; 2023 Part II

 As summer rolls around, here’s Part II for your beach reading!

The Man Who Broke Bowling
If you’re anything like OM, you occasionally find yourself at the bowling alley throwing a sad mix of 7s and 8s with the odd strike thrown in.   You’re certainly not like Jason Belmonte, who’s revolutionized the sport by throwing…two-handed!   
(Eric Willis, GQ magazine)


Relax for the Same Result
This is an old post that OM goes back to every so often when stressed and rushing to get something done by a deadline.   It’s a good reminder of the unproductive effort due to stress and how it neither helps the quality or speed of our work.
(Derek Sivers)

What Will Transformers Transform?
As regular readers will know, OM is a fan of Dr. Rodney Brooks and often posts his year-end update of prior predictions.  With everything that’s been written about Artificial Intelligence and GPT models (both the good and the bad), his article from a couple of months ago is worth rereading.  The punchline; “Calm down people. We neither have super powerful AI around the corner, nor the end of the world caused by AI about to come down upon us.”
(Rodney Brooks)


30,000 Reasons Wages aren’t Falling
We’ve spent much of the last year being told recession is imminent, unemployment is about to spike, and that wage hikes are coming to an end.  While we might be getting closer to that point, OM suspects that the world has also changed somewhat; that we are moving from a world that favoured capital to one that benefits labor.  It’s been something OM has been meaning to write about for a while now, but it’s a complicated subject and he’s never quite found the right words.  The good news is that Erik Renander found some of them…
(Erik Renander, Your Weekend Reading).


Turkey: How Mehmet Simsek convinced Erdogan to drop his low interest rate policy
A portion of OM’s portfolio is in dislocation investing, where on first read the idea will look ugly.  Hopefully, kind reader your initial reaction will be “WTF???  Are you insane!” but will slowly trend towards “that’s weird, but kinda interesting!” over time (e.g. Uranium).  The key is being able to invest when valuation is cheap, fundamentals are turning, and there’s a narrative to draw others in!   Well, Turkey is exceptionally cheap, there are hints of a change, and it has the benefit that it can be geopolitically promiscuous between the US and China.  However, especially after Erdogan’s recent victory at the polls, it has lacked a narrative that will draw investors in.  Perhaps this major change in economic policy is the start of a ‘normalization’ in Turkey that at least removes the negative narrative.
(Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye)


This is Biology’s Century – We’re not Ready for it
The phrase ‘biology’s century’ has been around for a while but has so far accurately encapsulated the 2000s with a record number of drugs approved including novel treatments for cancer, diabetes, numerous vaccines and the first gene therapies.  However, biotech’s limits are now testing the medical infrastructure that we have built and many of the solutions favor the expedient over the rigorous.
(Matthew Harper, STAT)

Things from my Newsblur; 2023 Part 1

It’s been too long since OM posted anything of note, so lets get the ball rolling with the first Things from my Newsblur for 2023.

Why Hot Wheels are one of the most inflation proof toys in American history

When he was young OM was a big fan of Hot Wheels cars, today it’s OM’s kids who enjoy them.  This article helps explain Hot Wheels’ history and longevity and how its kept prices so affordable over the years.   (Fernando Alfonso III, NPR)

 

99 Good News Stories You Probably Didn’t Hear About in 2022

This article is a good reminder to seek our balance in what you read and where you get your news from.  On the heels of more financial strife, the anniversary of the war in Ukraine, et al – here’s some of the good things that happened in 2022.  (Future Crunch)

Wildlife Photographer of the Year Winners

In a similar vein, here are some of the stunning nature photographs from last year.  My favorite was the bat-snatcher, what’s yours?

(NPR)

What I Think About LeBron Breaking My NBA Scoring Record

Just a classy article written after LeBron James became the all-time NBA leading scorer.

(Kareen Abdul-Jabbar)

The End of Silicon Valley (Bank)

The demise of Silicon Valley Bank (‘SVB’) is a financial story, but at their core bank runs are stories about trust.  Silicon Valley and venture capital more than anywhere else is an industry founded on trust.  While there have been signs of this weakening over the last decade, SVB’s failure is poignant as it suggests just how much it has weakened (and how herdlike VC’s are!).  More broadly it is also reflective of the journey that society has embarked on since the Great Financial Crisis with trust in institutions declining across the board.

(Ben Thompson, Stratechery)

Evolution of a Structural Bull Market: The PTSD Pullback

Regular readers know OM has a lot of commodity-related exposure in his portfolio principally through uranium and tin position.  While OM’s not yet ready to declare that a commodity super-cycle is here, it is increasingly clear that supply is constrained and demand is continuing to increase.  If a structural commodity bull market (or supercycle) is really here, this is a vital read for investors as it will help remind folks (or educate those who haven’t yet seen a commodity bull market) just how volatile commodity bull markets are.  They are NOT anything like the tech/software markets we’ve seen in recent years.  (Arjun Murti, Super-Spiked)

Things from my Newsblur; 2022 Part 2

Hopefully, you’ve all had a fine summer – here are some interesting articles that piqued OM’s interest over the break!

 

The Incredible Tale of the Greatest Toy Man You’ve Never Known

With Christmas on the horizon, OM like many other parents is turning his thought to what to buy the kids (Mrs. OM has so far vetoed coal, laundry bags, and Clorox wipes!).   What better time to read about Al Kahn – whose made and lost (and made again) fortunes – and is behind toys such as Pokemon, Yu-Gi-Oh! And Cabbage Patch kids!

(Scott Eden, Inc.)

Ancient Traditions Reveal 2 Rituals That Will Make You An Awesome Parent

Parenting is hard, and surprisingly the books on it contain little science or even insight from wise moms!   Eric Barker looks at the lessons from Michealeen Doucleff’s book (“Hunt, Gather, Parent: What Ancient Cultures Can Teach Us About the Lost Art of Raising Happy, Helpful Little Humans.”) drawn from her time spent with the Maya in Mexico, the Inuit in the Arctic, and Hadzabe near the Serengeti.   OM found the suggestions interesting and is trying to implement some of them into our daily lives!

(Eric Barker, Barking Up the Wrong Tree)

The Business of Barcelona

For those football fans amongst us, the shenanigans at Barcelona over the last 12-18 months have been quite something to behold!   The Generalist has a great look at the business-side of Barcelona, and how it all went wrong including their spectacular profligacy and how they’re trying to fix those problems.

(Mario Gabriele, The Generalist)

Long Covid, The Long History Version

The inability to define, let alone effectively research or treat long Covid continues to be a glaring weakness in the medical response.  Unfortunately, post-pandemic/epidemic and post-viral ailments are consistently under-researched with few historical lessons learned.

(Zeynep Tufekci, The Insight)

The Crypto Geniuses Who Vaporized a Trillion Dollars

Now that it’s had its first institutional blow-up, I guess we can count crypto as a real asset class.  In a tale as old as finance Jen Wieczner goes inside the collapse of Three Arrows, run by Su Zhu and Kyle Davies.  The two-Ivy League-educated and Wall Street-trained investors blew up their multi-billion-dollar firm and took down a large part of the crypto industry with them.   Unsurprisingly it involves hubris, non-existent risk management and a lot of leverage.

(Jen Wieczner, both NY Mag)

Things from my Newsblur; 2022 Part 1

OM has been very delinquent in updating the blog during a busy first half of 2022 - hopefully, this is the start of a little more frequent posting as we head into the second half of the year!  To ease us back into the flow here are some light reads and videos from the last 12mos that you might find interesting - especially if you have kids!


Here’s How to Understand What a “95% Accurate” Test Is Actually Telling You
Pretend you’re a doctor; You’re using a new test for Disease X, which afflicts 1 out of every 1,000 adults. The new test has perfect “sensitivity,” i.e. it detects every single true positive case of Disease X. It also has a false positive rate of 5%. Your last patient doesn’t have obvious symptoms, but you just got their positive test result. What is the chance that they actually have Disease X?”

If you answered ~2%, you’re shockingly good at mental math or you stopped, thought about it and used a pen/paper.  If you didn’t answer 2% (and especially if you answered 95%) then please read the article.  (David Epstein, Range Widely)


Why should we go to Mars?
With everything stressful, sad and concerning going on in the world, here’s something rather more hopeful.  NASA’s Perseverance landed on Mars in 2021.  Why does that matter?   Let Dr. Robert Zurbin of the Mars Society spend 5 minutes telling you why - it’s the real science, the challenge, and the future!  
(Dr. Robert Zurbin, YouTube) 

How to Outrun a Dinosaur
If you have kids of a certain age, this is the kind of stuff that’s helpful to know; Velociraptrors are vastly overrated by Jurassic World, juvenile T-Rex’s are not!
(Cody Cassidy, Wired)

How to Kick a$$ at your first job…any maybe second
OM was recently asked to give some advice to a couple of college-aged interns by a friend; Jackie DiMonte does it far better.
(Jackie DiMonte, Day by Jay)

10 easy ways you can tell for yourself that the Earth is not flat
It’s nearly the midterm election season in the US – politicians will say stupid things (including being utterly oblivious to what a “95% Accurate” test means).  Here’s one way even a child can disprove the stupidest thing you’ll probably hear.
(Moriel Schottlender, Popular Science)

How a Portuguese Fishing Village Tamed a 100ft wave
OM has never surfed, but one of the joys of last summer was watching “100 Foot Wave” with his kids and the various random discussions that followed each episode.  For those who don’t have HBO/HBO Max, this article tells the tale of Nazare in Portugal, and its local council and surfer Robert McNamara who have made it the epicenter of big wave surfing!
(Elly Earls)

Rock Skip Robot – The Perfect Science of Rock Skipping
If you’ve ever wanted to impress someone with your rock skipping abilities, then Mark Rober has some tips for you.  If you’ve ever wanted your kids to watch something interesting/useful then OM highly recommends Mark Rober’s YouTube channel.
(Mark Rober, YouTube)


Who’s Afraid of Elemental Power
OM believes that nuclear will be the bridge between fossil fuels and renewables, and that the transition will take longer than people expect.  It’s part of the reason he has a BIG Uranium position!  Well, here’s some of the arguments for nuclear and a rebrand to make it less…scary.
(Harry Stevens, Washington Post)

Things from my Newsblur; 2021 Part 1

To borrow liberally from something I read this week; it doesn’t really feel like 2021 has started yet, so welcome to Day 397 of 2020!   Hopefully, the real 2021 will stand up and be a little calmer than the start!

The Wall Street Insurgency
This is the MUST READ for folks in Finance, or just curious about WallStreetBets and events of the last fortnight.  There has been a lot of debate in financial circles about the short squeezes in GameStop and other names, and why it’s happened.  Spoiler alert: it has little to do with finance, and is an expression of much broader trends. (Radigan Carter)

 

The Incredible Story of the Great Cannonball Run Boom
How quickly could you drive from New York's Red Ball Garage to the Portofino Hotel in LA? That, is the Cannonball Run!  One of the few good things about the COVID-19 pandemic is the limited number of cars on the road.   For some enterprising folks this meant the perfect scenario to try for the Cannonball Run record.   Last year saw the record fall numerous times and tumble to 25 hours and 39mins.  For all you budding racers out there, that's a 110mph average speed driving coast to coast! (Alex Palmer, GQ) 

 

India Stack: The Art of Digital Alchemy
India is known for many things though speed and efficiency are not amongst them!   Yet, it has one of the most advanced and successfully financial technology stacks in the world.  This is a fine deeper look into India Stack – coordinated technologies that promise to help governments, businesses and the people.  Hopefully, it lives up to its early promises…(The Emissary)  

 

The Rise and Fall of Vanilla Ice
Folks of OM’s generation will remember “Ice Ice Baby”, which became the first rap song to top the Billboard Hot 100!  Vanilla Ice’s rise and fall was dramatic, and here it is in his own words…(Jeff Weiss, The Ringer) 

 

The Donut King who went full circle – from rags to riches, twice!
The story of Ted Ngoy who came to the US as a Cambodian refugee and built a fortune running donut shops in California. However, after starting to gamble he lost it all – the donut shops and his family.   After scuffling around rock bottom for a number of years, he managed to turn himself into a multi-millionaire back in Cambodia.  Quite the wild ride!  (Vibeke Venema, BBC) 

 

Did the Coronavirus Escape from a Lab
A year ago it was a crazy conspiracy.  The lack of information and clarity since, means it’s now just one theory amongst many.  Nicholson Baker digs deeper… (Nicholson Baker, New York Magazine)

Things from my Newsblur; 2020 Part 3

It’s been too long since OM’s last “Things from” so I’ll spare you much of an introduction.  The broad inspiration for this “Things from” is the FT interview with the world’s greatest short seller, where he called this “the golden age of fraud”.  While it’s rarely wise to disagree with Jim Chanos, perhaps the more charitable “the golden age of half-truths” is a better description.

The Vampire Ship
As you know, OM likes tankers and here’s a wild tale about one, the Noor One.  It’s a tale about heroin smuggling and Europe’s largest ever drugs bust, but that’s just the opening act.  The main course sees the gangsters involved trying to murder each other across the globe, together with witnesses and journalists dying in unexplained circumstances in Greece.  It ends with still-raging political corruption scandals in Turkey and the Middle East, as well as in Greece where the one of the country’s leading oligarchs has been enveloped.
(Alexander Clapp, The New Republic)

Beware What Sounds Insightful
With the proliferation of newsletters (and Medium posts) comes a fine warning; what sounds insightful and what is useful or true are often not the same thing!
(Cedric Chin, Commonplace)

Wirecard and me: Dan McCrum on exposing a criminal enterprise
Wirecard, a multi-billion dollar market cap German fintech company, which imploded earlier this year is the public market's poster child for the Golden Age of Fraud.   This article is just the cliff notes of the FT’s 5-year investigation of the firm, which included providing evidence that much of the business wasn’t real.  Yet all this led to was the stock rocketing upwards (and into Germany’s DAX index), Wirecard spying on the journalists and the BAFIN (German securities regulator) choosing to investigate McCrum & the FT rather than Wirecard.  In the end, a special audit by KPMG led the company to announce $2 billion was ‘missing’ in June 2020, and this turned out to be the tip of the iceberg.  Today, the stock is worthless, the CEO and various associates are in jail awaiting charges, and the COO is on the run.
(Dan McCrum, Financial Times)

An Arrest in Canada Casts a Shadow on a New York Times Star, and The Times
This story, about the unraveling of Rukmini Callimachi’s reporting on terrorism is one OM was sad to read.  It shows the difficulty for journalism as it seeks a profitable business model, but also – much like the markets – how bad incentives can lead to narrative driving everything, and facts being rearranged to suit them.
(Ben Smith, New York Times)

From Boom to Bloodbath
One of the things OM is currently researching is the opportunities arising as a result of the collapse of Shale – I see your natural gas producers, and (eventually) offshore oil services cos!   With the collapse in oil prices bringing the Shale revolution to a screeching halt, Justin Miller looks at what it means for Texas and whether the state can transition to become a renewable energy powerhouse.
(Justin Miller, Texas Observer)

This Overlooked Variable is the Key to the Pandemic
Spoiler alert, it’s not R!  Another fantastic piece by Zeynep Tufekci – the West has been slow to understand and adapt to the evidence that ‘the corona’ (to quote OM’s kids) doesn’t spread like the flu but more like 2003’s SARS.  Super-spreader events are far more important than the average captured by R, and recognition of this leads to VERY different policy choices.  See Japan for more information.  (Zeynep Tufekci, The Atlantic).

The Students Left Behind by Remote Learning
“The desire to protect children may put their long-term well-being at stake” sub-heading is another reminder of the touch choices COVID-19 has forced upon us, and how we struggle when the benefits and costs are unequal and when measured on different time horizons.  
(Alec MacGillis, New Yorker)

Things from my Newsblur; 2020 Part 2

I hope you’re all safe and not going too stir crazy!   A broad Things from my Newsblur covering everything from Lord of the Flies, to Ewoks, to gambling on horse racing, before the finance and COVID-19 stuff!

The real Lord of the Flies: what happened when six boys were shipwrecked for 15 months 

William Golding’s book focuses on a stranded group of boys and their disastrous and brutal attempts to govern themselves.  The real-life version proved to be rather different from that best-selling book!

(Rutger Bregman, the Guardian)

The Great Buenos Aires Bank Heist

It’s not quite Ocean’s 11, but sometimes art imitates life – an all-star crew pull-off a simple but audacious plan and become folk heroes!

(Josh Dean, GQ)

Ewoks are the Most Tactically Advanced Fighting Force in Star Wars

It is a prerequisite that the bad guys in movies are incompetent.  Unfortunately, the same is often the case for the heroes – as demonstrated by the ineptness shown in the Battle of Winterfell. Now behold, far more on this subject.  As Star Wars fans must recognize, the Empire/First Order despite their overwhelming fire power lack basic co-ordination!  And the Rebels…well they have great spies, but their only plan is rely on “The Force” and regularly making low probability shots from one of their fighters!   Instead, as the article comprehensively shows…it is those cuddly Ewoks who’re the only ones that know what they’re doing!

(Angry Staff Officer, Wired)

The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse Racing Code

Horse racing was long considered the hardest sport to bet on due to the large number of variables and potential outcomes. This is the amazing story of Bill Benter, who wrote an algorithm that won at the track - and by won, we’re talking $1 billion!  For the finance folks, lots of similarities to the world of finance here! 

(Kit Chellel, Bloomberg)

The Birth of the NHS

While Aneurin Bevan was never Prime Minister, he is one of the most important British politicians of the 20th century.  Certainly the most important Labour one!  Some 75-years later, we can say that Bevan largely succeeded in his ambition to build a national health service based on four principles: it was to be free at the point of use, available to everyone who needed it, paid for out of general taxation, and used responsibly.  The irony, of course, was that the biggest opponent of the NHS at its inception – the British Medical Association – is now one of its biggest supporters.

(Andy McSmith, The Independent)

Modelling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity

With the Fed’s money printer going brrr coinciding with Bitcoin’s halving, it might be Bitcoin’s time to go mainstream.  For those of you of a financial persuasion, here’s Plan B’s important paper fusing a stock-to-flow to model Bitcoin’s value as one would precious metals.

(Plan B, Medium)

Coronavirus Will Bring Trade Wars and Rising Inequality. How to Fix it.

OM is a huge fan of Michael Pettis, whose posts and tweets on China are essential reading.  He’s just written a new book, together with Matthew Klein, espousing a different view on globalization, rising inequality, rising debt and the fragile economies they produce.   Matthew Klein previews it in this piece, noting “the danger is that a global conflict between economic classes within countries gets misinterpreted as a series of conflicts between countries with competing interests.”

(Matthew Klein, Barron’s)

Five Points about US Trade Over the Last Thirty Years

Speaking of trade, Brad Sester’s been through the data and pulled some interesting (and surprising) nuggets.  Unsurprisingly economic theory holds up less well in the real world, especially when IP can be off-shored to a tax haven!

(Brad Sester, Council of Foreign Relations)

The Real Reason To Wear a Mask

The ever changing ‘advice’ around masks – the CDC and WHO both went from no masks to wear masks – is one of the examples of institutional failure during this crisis.  Simple common sense and the maths of it should have led to early insistence on masks in public places! 

(Zeynep Tufekci, Jeremy Howard & Trisha Greenhalgh, The Atlantic)

COVID-19 Targets the Elderly.  Why Don’t Our Prevention Efforts?

As much of Europe and the US starts to exit lockdown and slowly open the economy back up the ‘debate’ over our choices has been largely non-existent, and largely limited to two groups insisting the other’s aims are to kill the economy or kill people.  Instead, we should be discussing if/how we can most effectively prevent COVID’s spread going forward.  On a related point, for New Yorkers - while Governor Cuomo has largely done a good job in handling COVID-19, it may well be the ill-advised executive order to send COVID-19 patients to nursing homes negates it all!

(David Wallace Wells, New York Magazine)

Things from my Newsblur; 2020 Part 1

With COVID-19 having spread to the West, OM has repurposed this Things from my Newsblur into a COVID-19 special.   Hopefully, a non-COVID-19 mental health break Things from my Newsblur will soon be upcoming. 

Stay safe people and WASH YOUR HANDS!

It’s hard not to drown in the sea of information, and misinformation, out there on COVID-19.  For OM, the single best curator of all things COVID-19 has been Azeem Azhar (@azeem), who’s refocused his weekly newsletter towards the subject.  His Exponential View newsletter is always one of OM’s weekly must reads.  That is especially the case this week, so if you read nothing else find time for this one.

Exponential View Newsletter #262 (free)
Read this; great curation of all things COVID-19, from progress against the virus, to China after covid and what it may mean for business models.  (Azeem Azhar)

Can Handwashing Really Stop the Spread of COVID-19

In short, it won’t eliminate the risk of infection but there’s evidence that it’s a simple and powerful safety measure.  Importantly, it also allows people to feel that they have something they can control in this fight.  (Sara Rigby, Science Focus)

Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Coronavirus: The Hammer & the Dance (follow-up to above article)

Tomas Pueyo’s original post used statistical analysis of the data available in early March to show why Western nations had to move far more aggressively on COVID-19.  It has been viewed 40 million times, and widely shared and quoted by numerous experts.   His follow-up article on what the next 18 months might look like offers a glimpse at the potential road ahead.  (Tomas Pueyo, published in Medium)

Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful

This clear and detailed report on the pandemic explains why we should all be taking social distancing and self-isolation seriously.  (The Atlantic, Ed Yong)

But it’s not all bad news; having most of the world’s best scientists focus on one disease, leads to jumps in progress.

There are over 250 clinical trials for COVID-19 currently underway.

There’s already new cheaper and quicker tests developed for testing for it and numerous groups are racing to develop antibody tests that can show if you’ve previously had COVID-19 (and thus potentially be immune to it).

We can learn best practices from some other countries’ success in stopping the virus affecting their healthcare workers. 

Things from my Newsblur; 2019 Part 4

A surprisingly timely Things from my Newsblur covering a broad array of topics.   Given that, why not start with everyone’s least favorite – Brexit!

Dominic Cummings: The Machiavel in Downing Street

While the political realignment in the U.S. is taking place within the political parties, in the UK it’s happening across the parties with Brexit as the central catalyst.  PM Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings, his chief strategist and the guy who lead the Vote Leave campaign, have been the accelerant with their all-in approach and the hard-lining of October 31st as THE date.  Since becoming PM over the summer, PM Johnson has lost his majority, every meaningful parliamentary vote, unanimously in the Supreme Court and is testing political norms/conventions.  Yet, his Conservative party has jumped to a meaningful lead in the polls and he has cemented “No Deal” as the default option to the consternation of the Opposition whose fears and frantic reactions ratchet higher as the deadline approaches.  Cummings is central to the escalating tension.  Is he a fool that has thrown it all away and put the nation at risk?  Or is he a visionary that has realized that politicians and media in the “Westminster bubble” is out of touch with the country, and by keeping his eye on the ‘prize’ of achieving Brexit created a situation where the Opposition and the EU are trapped amidst multiple prisoner’s dilemmas and faced with making a Hobson’s choice.  So what is Cummings, fool or visionary? Or is he both?

(Harry Lambert, The New Statesman)

Bonus Cummings edition: This 2018 video, of Cummings talking about Why Leave Won the Referendum, is well worth watching.

Washington Should Tax Capital Inflows

Long-time readers will know that Our Man is a huge fan of Michael Pettis and his take on both China and economics.   This timely article, from a couple of months ago, talks about how taxing capital inflows is a far better way to balance trade than imposing tariffs. The article discusses how it addresses the root causes of the problem, and shifts most of the adjustment costs onto banks and speculators.   The idea was amongst the smorgasbord of things that the Trump Administration threatened last week; even a blind squirrel finds a nut! 

(Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets)

Neither & New: Lessons from Uber and Vision Fund

The spectacular collapse of the WeWork IPO has cast a spotlight on the valuation of companies in the private markets.  In particular, it is on a group of capital burning companies that use technology to facilitate real world services.  They are neither pure technology companies (e.g. Enterprise SaaS cos) nor are they old world companies.  It’s yet to be determined if they will grow to profitability or if, like the late 1800s Steel technological revolution, it’s all profitless prosperity.  Who better to explain the nuances than Ben Thompson!  Anyone remotely interested in technology should at least read his (free) weekly article!  (Ben Thompson, Stratechery)

The Streaming Wars: Ride or Die

With Netflix, Hulu, Apple, Amazon, Disney et al all streaming their content libraries, which ones should you watch?   What’s the difference between their offerings, their business models and their goals?  Which might survive? The excellent Matthew Ball breaks it all down in this comprehensive guide!  (Matthew Ball, Redef)

Why are Autoimmune Diseases on the Rise?

While genetics explain a good portion of autoimmune disease prevalence, changing environments (including stress) are helping lead to sharp increase in the number of cases.  For anyone who has, or knows someone who has, an autoimmune disease much of this article will feel familiar.  It touches on the increased prevalence, the lack of a central database for autoimmune disorders (of which there are over 100) which contributes to the long and hard process of identifying them, and the difficulty in treating them.  (Tessa Love, Medium Elemental)

Alberto Salazar: The inside story of Nike Oregon Project founder's downfall

An inside look from BBC reporter Mark Daly whose Panorama program sparked the USADA’s investigation, which led to one of athletics' most successful coaches being found guilty of doping violations.  That Salazar was a long-time friend of Phil Knight (Nike founder), founded and ran the Nike Oregon Project, and even after the story broke was supported by Nike Ambassador’s including his “good friend” the IAAF President, Seb Coe, only adds to the intrigue.  UK Athletics, which found “no reason to be concerned” despite taking evidence from whistleblowers and the BBC, comes out with no credit either!   It also shows how long these investigative pieces take to come to fruition.  The initial work began in 2013, to Panorama’s “Catch Me if you Can” program aired in 2015, USADA charging Salazar in 2017, and it took a secretive 2-year court battle to get justice! 

(Mark Daly, BBC Panorama)

Rap Battle Debate: Hamilton vs. Satoshi

Want to know about that Bitcoin thing but don’t want to read long dull pieces on it?   Well, here are the key arguments in a far more digestible 21st century format! (Rhyme Combinator, Youtube)

Things from my Newsblur; 2019 Part 3

Time for the latest edition of “Things from my Newsblur”, which is a little tech heavy.  As usual, the most investment-related stuff is at the end.

The Battle of Winterfell: A Tactical Analysis

With GoT’s final season having ended a couple of weeks ago, Our Man thinks he’s probably safe to post this without spoiling anyone's enjoyment.  OM watched the Battle of Winterfell and had questions, so many questions, about Team Living’s plan.  Questions like…wait, you’re going to just charge your cavalry into the darkness without scouting?  Or your fire trenches are behind your army - how are you going to retreat?   Or you might want to use those dragons rather than chilling out on a hill?   Or does Brann want to do anything – you know, like use his ravens to check out the Dead’s army or be helpful, in any way?  Well, here’s an army officer’s tactical analysis of the Battle, which confirms that Team Living were borderline inept.  (Angry Staff Officer, Wired)

Florence Nightingale: The Pioneering Statistician

The Crimean War was the first major conflict of the industrial age that utilized railways, armored ships, telegraph wires and was fought with high explosive shells.  It’s also the first war that saw its after-effects recorded through photography.  Amidst it all, Florence Nightingale (and her team) ran hospitals for the wounded soldiers, and through this work she became known as the founder of modern nursing and became an icon of British culture, especially in the persona of “The Lady with the Lamp”.   Part of her success came from the rigorous collection of data and its subsequent statistical analysis, through which she uncovered that more soldiers were killed by preventable diseases caused by unsanitary healthcare than as a result of battlefield wounds.  Through portraying this visually – and bringing the pie chart and its cousin the polar area diagram to the fore – she helped lead to reform health care in the Army and through the Public Health Acts of 1874 and 1875 in the entire UK.  This short article goes through some of the background on Nightingale’s approach, and how it was so revolutionary for the time.  (The Science Museum)

Artificial General Intelligence Has Been Delayed

For all the talk of autonomous driving and the driverless car, which underpins the valuation of many of the ‘mobility’ companies (be it Tesla, Uber or Lyft), Professor Rodney Brooks discusses how artificial general intelligence, and with it autonomous driving, is going to take a lot longer than people realize.  He’s not alone, with folks like Chris Umson (former head of Google’s self-driving project) suggesting that driverless cars will be slowly integrated onto our roads “over the next 30 to 50 years.”  (Professor Rodney Brooks, his blog)

The Aldi Effect: How One Discount Supermarket Changed the Way Britain Shops

This excellent article charts the rise of German supermarket Aldi in the UK; while it was initially looked down upon, it has taken share consistently since the Financial Crisis and grown from 2% to 8% of the market.  Like many disruptors, the tale is a mix of providing a customer with something they didn’t yet know they wanted, a completely different culture and cost structure from the lazy incumbents, and a willingness to make decisions with a longer-term horizon in mind.   For my fellow Brooklyn-ites, who don’t think Aldi has yet encroached on their shopping habits, you might want to think about who own Trader Joe’s the next time you’re purchasing your Mandarin Orange Chicken or Everything But the Bagel Seasoning! (Xan Rice, the Guardian)

Breaking Smart: Season 1 – How Software is Eating the World

Our Man’s very interested in software, especially enterprise software as a multi-year investment theme.   It hasn’t yet made it to the portfolio as Our Man spent the tail-end of Q4 researching the broader software/unicorn landscape for a recent thought piece and potential investment ideas for clients.  However, expect something on it soon as colleagues prefer to focus on the private market options.  One of the benefits of the project was that OM re-read Breaking Smart, which was the result of author Venkatesh Rao being invited to spend the year 2014 in the offices of Andreessen Horowitz (leading VC firm).    This is a long read – 30,000 words – but it’s broken down into 20 bite size essays that touch upon the impact of the technological changes on our lives and societies.  It holds up well, so make the time to slowly work your way through it!  (Venkatesh Rao, Breaking Smart)

Tsipras faces fight to stay in power after EU elections mauling

As regular readers know, OM’s highest conviction position is Greece and it is out sized at 20% of the portfolio.  A key part of the thesis is that a change in government at the next elections, will change the narrative and draw investors back to Greece.  Well, the opposition New Democracy party have been meeting those investors who’ve been to Greece for much of the last two years in the hope that investors will know them and their plan, and be ready to invest if/when they come to power.  That judgment day was brought forwards to early July, after Greek PM Tsipras called a snap election following his party’s defeat in last week’s European elections.  Now, we’ll see if the thesis holds.  (Guardian)

Things from my Newsblur; 2019 Part 2

No major updates  from Our Man, though he's (still) working on a software (Enterprise, not Consumer) thesis.  Instead, another edition of “Things from my Newsblur” - this time some recent(ish) articles that have caught OM's eye, but didn't get enough attention generally.

Live Long – What Really Extends Lifespan
This isn’t actually an article, but a graphic of the way various traits affect lifespan.  The strength of the science is clearly shown, and ranges from suggestive to strong.  The traits range from the subtle (drinking a little alcohol vs. abstinence) to the more obvious (avoid cancer).  Well worth a look!  (Dave McCandless, Information is Beautiful)

This 8-Year Old Chess Champion Will Make you Smile
While last week saw a college admissions scandal in the US, this heartwarming article is another little reminder that talent is universal but opportunity is not. (Nicolas Kristof, New York Times)

Into the Dark
The Thai cave rescue seemed crazy at the time.  After reading Shannon Gormley’s article, based on months of in-person interviews with the key protagonists, it seems even crazier.  The confluence of skill, meticulous planning and luck required not just by the dive-team but also by the support staff (and Thai government) is astouding.  It’s the kind of story that if you read it in a book (or saw in a film) you wouldn’t believe.  (Shannon Gormley, Macleans)

Humanity + AI = Better Together
Robots are coming for your jobs!  Skynet is after your children!  Really?  Well, the flip side of the popular narrative is that in conjunction with AI - we will become more creative, improve our productivity and powers, make better decisions, be safer as dangerous tasks can be automated and understand each other better.  Too good to be true?  Well, Frank Chen takes us through those positive arguments.  (Frank Chen, a16z)

Here’s why we’re entering the Golden Age of Podcasts
Our Man has been an avid podcast listener for many a year, and it seems that 2018 is the year they finally broke into the mainstream.   Perhaps, the hit podcast Serial was the gateway drug for folks.  This article shows the state of podcasts in 10 charts, with some thoughts on what’s next!  (Dave Zohrob, Chartable Blog)

The Hunt for Planet Nine
Mike Brown is the “Pluto Killer”; a man with dozens of astronomical discoveries to his name, including the dwarf planets Sedna and Eris.  Konstantin Batygin is a renowned theoretical astrophysicist, who at age 22 mathematically proved our universe is unstable (don’t worry, we’ve got a few thousand years before Mercury crashes into the sun, or Venus!).  After analyzing historical data, they proposed in January 2016 that there was a giant planet orbiting far away from everything.  The hunt is on to find “Planet Nine”, and this is their tale.  (Shannon Stirone, Longreads)

Amazon’s Anti-trust Paradox
The history of anti-trust in the US is a surprisingly interesting topic, from its use to break-up Standard Oil in 1911 to its subsequent over-reach in the 1960’s and 1970’s, which saw Robert Bork redefine the term “competition” and paved the way for today’s University of Chicago inspired laissez faire approach.  Lina Khan’s article, combined with the discussion around ‘Big Tech’, has perhaps paved the way for a new interpretation of anti-trust law.  (Lina M. Khan, Yale Law Journal)

Things from my Newsblur; 2019 Part I

Let’s begin this year as we mean to go on, with an early edition of “Things from my Newsblur”.  As usual, the most investment-related stuff is at the end.

Dwarf planet 'The Goblin' discovery redefining solar system
Approaching Halloween last year, one of Our Man’s son’s was very into space and especially the hypothetical Planet 9 and the  Dwarf planets.  Imagine the joy, at (i) the discovery of a new dwarf planet, (ii) that it’s called ‘The Goblin’, and (iii) that its existence and orbit further suggest Planet 9 is out there.  Happy days, though the song needs updating!
(Hannah Devlin, The Guardian)

Women’s Pockets are Inferior
Mrs. OM hcompains about the frustration of women’s pockets, and especially the decorative faux pockets.  Well, here’s the data (and cool graphics) on the differences in pocket sizes and shapes in twenty of the most popular blue jeans for men and women.   Spoiler alert:  No shock but the data proves that women have a right to be upset!
(Jan Diehm & Amber Thomas, Pudding.cool)

Rodney Brooks: Tech Prediction Scorecard, January 2019
Predicting the future is fraught with the risk of looking foolish…and more so when you’re looking at to 2050 and thinking about technological change.  A year ago, Rodney Brooks made multiple predictions on self-driving cars, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and the space industry.  He will revisit them and highlight the progress, as well as where he is on track or off base.  If you only read one blog post on those subjects, each year, make it this one.
Why is it interesting?  Well, the future is interesting, and Dr. Brooks is more qualified than most to hazard these guesses.  Additionally, we can see how the data and his thinking evolve each year - process matters!  Dr. Brooks is the Panasonic Professor of Robotics at MIT, where he was also the Director of the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab.  He’s also a Founder, former Board Member and former CTO of iRobot.
(Rodney Brooks, his blog).

Vietnam is Winning the US-China Trade War
With the current US-China trade war picking up, and the sense that it’s the start of a new dynamic between the two countries rather than a one-off spat, technology manufacturers are starting to set-up factories elsewhere.  This coupled with Vietnam opening up to free trade (e.g. the TPP and a trade deal with Europe) has meant that “Vietnam, once dependent on garments and other cheap exports, has begun to rival China’s tech sector.”  This is not something new, but merely Vietnam starting to tread down the path that Thailand took ~30yrs ago, and China ~20-25yrs ago.  Absent a major change, expect Vietnam to be Our Man’s portfolio for a looooooong time!
(Bennett Murray, Foreign Policy)

How Open-Source Software Took Over the World
Regular readers will know that OM has been reading about, linking to, and mentioning software (especially enterprise) a lot recently.  Five years ago, the idea that open-source software was viable let alone would be dominant was met with skepticism from investors.  The world has certainly changed, with IBM’s purchase of Redhat (for $32 billion!!) headlining a list of multi-billion dollar takeovers, IPOs and companies!  Mike Volpi goes through the evolution of open-source software from Linux and MySQL, through the second generation and how it evolved towards Software-as-a-Service business models enabled by the cloud.
(Mike Volpi, TechCrunch)

But…
AWS, MongoDB, and the Economic Realities of Open Source
What if enterprise open-source software is music; and the software cos are the record cos?  Music like open-source software is relatively worthless once it’s been produced, since it can be copied endlessly.  Record companies don’t sell music, but rather the tools that make music usable (i.e. CDs in the good ole days)…and it is the same with open-source software, especially in the cloud era.  Therein lies the rub, will the value accrue to software cos (or record companies) or to those companies (and products) like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft's Azure, etc. (or Spotify, Apple Music, etc in the case of music) that provide the convenience to the end customer.
(Ben Thomspon, Stratechery – if you like technology and read nobody else on a weekly basis, read Ben!).

Things from my Newsblur; 2018 Part V

Time for (probably) the final 2018 edition of “Things from my Newsblur”.  As usual, the most investment-related stuff is at the end, though this version does give a glimpse at a future theme and an update on Greece.  Before that it’s a mixed bag of spying, left turns, Fortnite, London Underground and music!

The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies

This is the most important story written this year; it’s about a unit of the Chinese PLA allegedly embedding tiny microchips in server motherboards bound for US corporations.  Either Bloomberg have researched and written an exceptional exposé that suggests every national security fear about “made in China” isn’t nearly paranoid enough.  Or this is one of the most irresponsible and dangerous pieces of journalism in many years; “fake news” would be a massive understatement.  Since the original story, both Apple and Amazon have pushed back exceptionally aggressively on this story with Tim Cook (Apple CEO) demanding a retraction and Amazon’s Chief Security Officer, Stephen Schmidt, providing an adamant and clear rejection of the story.  Bloomberg for its part doubled down, with a follow-up story a few days later.

(Jordan Robertson & Michael Riley, Bloomberg Businessweek)

No Turn Left Behind - One small change to New York’s intersections is saving pedestrians’ lives

A great article on how a small, cheap and simple change – installing various rubber items at intersections where there are left turns – is improving pedestrian safety in NYC.  The greater incidence of pedestrian injury when cars make left turns was known for a while, but not understood.  NYC combed through its trove of data on accidents, finding that left turns by cars cause 3x as many pedestrian and bicycle casualties as right-turns.  Armed with the data, they studied the causes and came up with a redesign of the streets that is both simple and cheap!  Government can work sometimes!

(Karen Hao & Amanda Shendruk, Quartz)

How Fortnite Captured Teen’s Hearts and Minds

Thankfully, OM’s kids aren’t old enough to play Fortnite because if they were at least one (no prizes for guessing which one) would definitely be addicted!   This article looks at how Fortnite has become a crazy phenomenon and some of the behavioral and psychological tricks it’s employing to stay there.

(Nick Paumgarten, New Yorker)

Behind the Scenes at London Underground’s Bank Station Upgrade

Our Man’s first job saw him battle the masses at Bank station a couple of times each day; it isn’t a cherished memory.  This look at the challenging renovation of the entire Bank/Monument train stations complex is fascinating.  Amazingly, Transport for London opted for the most innovative option and the result will be a truly transformational change, despite substantial engineering and construction challenges.  What challenges?  Well it’s all taking place deep underground, and there is one small rectangular shaft through which everything (including the diggers) has to descend.  The process has been described as trying to redecorate your living room with all the items being sent in through your letterbox.

(Ian, at his blog Ian Visits).

Now That’s What I Call Music – How One Compilation Came to Rule them All.

An oral history on the back story of how the ubiquitous compilation series came to rule the market.  Amazingly, it continues to prove resistant to the numerous playlists/compilations available through online streaming.  It sold an amazing 3.2million albums in the UK in 2017, managing to outsell the leading artist (Ed Sheeran).

(Mark Savage, BBC)

How Subscription Business Models are changing the world

Marc Andreessen’s seminal WSJ article that “Why Software Is Eating the World” came out over 7-years ago, thus we cannot be surprised by its increasing prevalence in our lives.  This blog post by Tren Griffin highlights how the emergence of mobile and the cloud has led to a new subscription based business model for software companies that is both increasing their reach and speeding up the pace of change.  Subscription business models in software (think Netflix, as the most basic example) will have profound changes across the economy.  Why?  It is an almost 0% marginal cost business – that is, once the code is written it is infinitely divisible (me watching Yes, Minister on Netflix doesn’t affect you watching it on Netflix, at the same time!) and distribution costs via the cloud are negligible (i.e. no producing disks, packaging, paying for retail space, etc.).  This affects simple financial metrics (like total addressable market and company valuation) but also has profound impacts on more important things like employment.  It isn’t robots (like C3PO) that’s going to take your job but software that automates parts of it and makes businesses more efficient.  This will also start to disproportionately impact white collar jobs that have been largely immune from the technological changes of the last decade.  Think of the payroll software that means you need 3-4 people in that department not 5-6, or the legal software that does large parts of a junior person’s case research.

(Tren Griffin, at his blog 25IQ)

[Spoiler Alert – Can you see a Software Thematic position coming soon…]

Stories, Greek myths, and Eurobank

Greece is the word, people!  You know OM has previously mentioned that he thinks Greece will be the largest position in the portfolio at some point next year.  Everything is slowly but surely lining up; it’s exceptionally cheap, the fundamentals are improving yet are being ignored because it’s hated.  Our Man is hoping 2019 sees the technicals bottom and that the upcoming elections set the stage for the narrative to change and investors to return.  Thankfully, Lyall Taylor’s long but excellent post saved Our Man having to write about the difference between the improving reality and people’s assumptions!  (Lyall Taylor, at his blog The LT3000 Blog)