Portfolio Update
All portfolio additions this quarter were in Commodities/Mining, with new positions in Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF), Prospector Metals (PMCOF), and Talon Metals (TLOFF, see here for external in-depth write-up on Talon). Longtime readers will recognize the central theme across OM’s portfolio: supply deficits created by years of under-investment, now colliding with modest demand growth. OM discussed this dynamic in detail ~18 months ago in the context of Uranium, Tin, and Tankers, and it has continued to strengthen.
What has changed is timing. While under-investment has been widespread across commodities for over a decade, it is only now coming to a head as supply deficits begin to emerge, demand increases, and industrial supply chains re-orient. This has been further compounded by a growing recognition that much of global supply for key commodities sits in jurisdictions unfriendly to the West.
OM’s Commodities/Mining exposure reflects this setup and is focused on high-quality deposits that had secured financing prior to OM’s investment, providing a longer runway toward production. To better reflect this shift, OM has reclassified Commodities and Tin from a “Theme” to a “Dislocation” for 2026.
Performance and Review
Our Man’s portfolio continued its strong run in the fourth quarter, rising 7.1% though performance was volatile (Oct: +9.2%, Nov: -4.8%, and Dec: +3.0%). This comfortably outperformed both the S&P 500 TR (+2.7%) and the MSCI World (+3.4%).
The strong final quarter meant the portfolio returned +36.3% for 2025, well ahead of the broader markets (S&P 500 TR: +17.9%; MSCI World: +18.4%).
As a couple of folks have asked, here is the medium-term history of the portfolio:
All portfolio additions this quarter were in Commodities/Mining, with new positions in Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF), Prospector Metals (PMCOF), and Talon Metals (TLOFF, see here for external in-depth write-up on Talon). Longtime readers will recognize the central theme across OM’s portfolio: supply deficits created by years of under-investment, now colliding with modest demand growth. OM discussed this dynamic in detail ~18 months ago in the context of Uranium, Tin, and Tankers, and it has continued to strengthen.
What has changed is timing. While under-investment has been widespread across commodities for over a decade, it is only now coming to a head as supply deficits begin to emerge, demand increases, and industrial supply chains re-orient. This has been further compounded by a growing recognition that much of global supply for key commodities sits in jurisdictions unfriendly to the West.
OM’s Commodities/Mining exposure reflects this setup and is focused on high-quality deposits that had secured financing prior to OM’s investment, providing a longer runway toward production. To better reflect this shift, OM has reclassified Commodities and Tin from a “Theme” to a “Dislocation” for 2026.
Performance and Review
Our Man’s portfolio continued its strong run in the fourth quarter, rising 7.1% though performance was volatile (Oct: +9.2%, Nov: -4.8%, and Dec: +3.0%). This comfortably outperformed both the S&P 500 TR (+2.7%) and the MSCI World (+3.4%).
The strong final quarter meant the portfolio returned +36.3% for 2025, well ahead of the broader markets (S&P 500 TR: +17.9%; MSCI World: +18.4%).
As a couple of folks have asked, here is the medium-term history of the portfolio:
Fourth Quarter Attribution
Argentina (+476bps) was the largest contributor, recovering roughly two-thirds of its 2025 losses after President Milei’s party performed strongly in the midterms. This eased concerns that his reform agenda would need to be scaled back. While the position’s performance in 2025 was frustrating, this largely reflected portfolio management errors - most notably not trimming after the outsized gains in 2024 - rather than any material deterioration in the underlying thesis.
UK/European Financials (+200bps) continue to perform strongly, suggesting that the market is not only being driven by the MAG7/AI! The position has contributed positively in each of its nine quarters in the portfolio, with the ADRs of Barclays and NatWest up ~250% (or roughly twice the MAG7). It is a reminder of the excess returns available when stocks are genuinely cheap and paired with changes that the market has yet to fully appreciate. While these names remain relatively inexpensive, they are no longer dislocated. The market now recognizes the earnings benefits of higher rates, leaving the final phase of performance as a rerating driven by more consistent and predictable earnings growth. As a result, OM has moved European Financials from the Dislocation to the Thematic bucket for 2026, and the position is likely to be reduced over time.
Commodities (+149bps) and Tin (+149bps) were beneficiaries of a broader repricing of supply-chain and geopolitical risk. During the quarter, China’s tightening of export controls on rare earth elements served as a reminder of how concentrated—and politically fragile—many commodity supply chains remain. This coincided with growing evidence that years of under-investment are now translating into physical tightness, particularly in smaller markets where incremental demand can have an outsized price impact. OM suspects many market participants have forgotten how aggressively these smaller markets can move, or haven’t been around long enough to know.
Uranium (-180bps) detracted, largely due to positioning and expectations rather than any deterioration in the longer-term fundamentals. Market optimism around Uranium’s formal inclusion on the US critical minerals list had built into prices, and delays caused by the government shutdown led to disappointment and near-term pressure across the complex.
US Reindustrialization (+21bps) and Idiosyncratic (+47bps) contributed as domestic industrial exposure continued to benefit from resilient US growth and ongoing capital spending tied to reshoring and infrastructure investment. The US Reindustrialization ETF, in particular, extended gains made earlier in the year, ending up over 30%, as mid-cap industrials remained tied to long-term capital expenditure themes rather than cyclical slowdowns. Smaller gains came from Carbon Credit Allowances (+12bps), Tankers/Shipping (+6bps), and India (+5bps).
China (-54bps) detracted following renewed political tensions with the US, which weighed on sentiment. Chinese equities performed well over 2025, and after a year of improving liquidity there are early signs of economic recovery. After a lost half-decade and with investor interest still limited, Chinese equities may be worth watching in 2026.
Blockchain/Crypto (-123bps) positions were a disappointment; OM failed to follow his own advice to exit at the end of Q3. Such an exit would have been near the all-time highs, instead he overthought and overcomplicated the position, based on an extended global liquidity into mid-2026. Given the sharpness of the descent, OM will look to exit on a bounce during Q1-26.
Portfolio (as at 1/1/26 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 48.1%
22.4% - Uranium (URNM & URNJ)
8.2% - Argentina (BMA, GGAL, SUPV)
7.2% - Commodities/Mining (LUNMF, TLOFF, PMCOF and IVPAF)
6.0% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
4.3% - China (KWEB, FXI and JD)
Thematic: 44.1%
11.6% - US Reindustrialization (AIRR)
10.6% - European/UK Financials (BCS, LYG, NWG)
8.2% - Carbon Credit Allowances (KCCA)
7.0% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, TNK, DHT and FRO)
3.8% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
2.9% - Blockchain/Crypto (IBIT, ETHE/ETH and BBBY)
Idiosyncratic: 2.6%
2.6% - Equities (JOE)
Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%
Cash: 5.3%
Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. While Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned, that alone is a terrible reason for anyone else to be. Our Man also holds some cash and a few other positions (of negligible value). Investors should always do their own work and make decisions based on their own circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance—and not because Our Man happened to mention something here.
UK/European Financials (+200bps) continue to perform strongly, suggesting that the market is not only being driven by the MAG7/AI! The position has contributed positively in each of its nine quarters in the portfolio, with the ADRs of Barclays and NatWest up ~250% (or roughly twice the MAG7). It is a reminder of the excess returns available when stocks are genuinely cheap and paired with changes that the market has yet to fully appreciate. While these names remain relatively inexpensive, they are no longer dislocated. The market now recognizes the earnings benefits of higher rates, leaving the final phase of performance as a rerating driven by more consistent and predictable earnings growth. As a result, OM has moved European Financials from the Dislocation to the Thematic bucket for 2026, and the position is likely to be reduced over time.
Commodities (+149bps) and Tin (+149bps) were beneficiaries of a broader repricing of supply-chain and geopolitical risk. During the quarter, China’s tightening of export controls on rare earth elements served as a reminder of how concentrated—and politically fragile—many commodity supply chains remain. This coincided with growing evidence that years of under-investment are now translating into physical tightness, particularly in smaller markets where incremental demand can have an outsized price impact. OM suspects many market participants have forgotten how aggressively these smaller markets can move, or haven’t been around long enough to know.
Uranium (-180bps) detracted, largely due to positioning and expectations rather than any deterioration in the longer-term fundamentals. Market optimism around Uranium’s formal inclusion on the US critical minerals list had built into prices, and delays caused by the government shutdown led to disappointment and near-term pressure across the complex.
US Reindustrialization (+21bps) and Idiosyncratic (+47bps) contributed as domestic industrial exposure continued to benefit from resilient US growth and ongoing capital spending tied to reshoring and infrastructure investment. The US Reindustrialization ETF, in particular, extended gains made earlier in the year, ending up over 30%, as mid-cap industrials remained tied to long-term capital expenditure themes rather than cyclical slowdowns. Smaller gains came from Carbon Credit Allowances (+12bps), Tankers/Shipping (+6bps), and India (+5bps).
China (-54bps) detracted following renewed political tensions with the US, which weighed on sentiment. Chinese equities performed well over 2025, and after a year of improving liquidity there are early signs of economic recovery. After a lost half-decade and with investor interest still limited, Chinese equities may be worth watching in 2026.
Blockchain/Crypto (-123bps) positions were a disappointment; OM failed to follow his own advice to exit at the end of Q3. Such an exit would have been near the all-time highs, instead he overthought and overcomplicated the position, based on an extended global liquidity into mid-2026. Given the sharpness of the descent, OM will look to exit on a bounce during Q1-26.
Portfolio (as at 1/1/26 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 48.1%
22.4% - Uranium (URNM & URNJ)
8.2% - Argentina (BMA, GGAL, SUPV)
7.2% - Commodities/Mining (LUNMF, TLOFF, PMCOF and IVPAF)
6.0% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
4.3% - China (KWEB, FXI and JD)
Thematic: 44.1%
11.6% - US Reindustrialization (AIRR)
10.6% - European/UK Financials (BCS, LYG, NWG)
8.2% - Carbon Credit Allowances (KCCA)
7.0% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, TNK, DHT and FRO)
3.8% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
2.9% - Blockchain/Crypto (IBIT, ETHE/ETH and BBBY)
Idiosyncratic: 2.6%
2.6% - Equities (JOE)
Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%
Cash: 5.3%
Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. While Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned, that alone is a terrible reason for anyone else to be. Our Man also holds some cash and a few other positions (of negligible value). Investors should always do their own work and make decisions based on their own circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance—and not because Our Man happened to mention something here.
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