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Sunday, March 24

Things from my Google Reader (or is it Old Reader, Feedly, Instapaper…): Mar-12 Edition

With Google announcing its closing down Google Reader, Our Man is amongst many on the hunt for a new RSS feed aggregator but more importantly the title of these posts is going to have to change soon!  Until then, here are some things I’ve been reading over recent months that might keep you entertained…

The first 200-250 words of this article boggled Our Man’s mind; read them, then take 30 seconds to think about what just transpired…it’ll likely blow your mind too!  As regular readers have likely gathered, Our Man is fascinated by human behaviour (and especially its impact in economics and on stock market moves) and this article illustrates that in pickpocketing, psychology and persuasion of the mind play as large a role as any physical skills.  (Adam Green, The New Yorker)

Prof Thaler is known as one of the father’s of behavioural economics/finance, and for his collaboration with Daniel Kahneman and others in further defining the field.  Given his (and other behavioural finance experts) work with governments (especially in the US and UK), it will be interesting to see if the hoped for positive impacts on policy will flow through over the coming years.  (Prof Richard Thaler, New York Times)

With a new baby in the Our Man household, this March title and article on the science of sleeplessness seemed awfully well-timed! (Elizabeth Kolbert, The New Yorker)

The 21st century has already been described as the era of “Big Data” and recently we looked at how data-driven electoral sites (whether it was 538, RCP, Pollster, or my personal favourite Votamatic) were far more successful than professionals at predicting the recent US election.  Unsurprisingly, with data far more prevalent, accessible and storable than ever before, its usage and analysis is being used in other fields to challenge long-held assumptions and beliefs.  Over time, it’ll be interesting to see if any of the vintners will produce ‘better’ wine as a result, or merely just more of it.  (Jeffrey M O’Brien, Wired)

Way back, in Mar-10, Our Man mentioned his interest in the LED theme (as part of the Energy Efficiency book) – sadly, he never ended up doing much with it as it appeared that while the long-term cost advantage of LED bulbs seemed clear the tipping point when the initial cost was palatable to consumers seemed a little too far away.  With Cree just announcing a bulb that retails at a more than affordable $10, perhaps it’s time to dust off those files. (Nayantara NAraryanan & ClimateWire, Scientific American).

The great, and almost always false, promise in finance is something that offers high returns (or yield) while being very safe.  A large number of the frauds and collapses have been based around this implicit (or explicit) promise – think Madoff, LTCM or even the likes of Enron.  One of the typical models of offering this promise is to take a low risk asset and create a structure around it that creates higher returns through levering it up (or by ‘ponzi finance’ through continually raising capital) .  Roddy Boyd takes a deep investigative look at Brookfield Asset Management, a high flying Toronto-based company, which has an exceptionally complex structure and is viewed by skeptics as another of those false promises that are all too common in finance(Roddy Boyd, Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation)

Saturday, March 9

February 2013 Review


Portfolio Update 
There was a couple of changes to the portfolio during the month: 
- Puts/Hedges: A put position in EWG (Jan-14, $18 strike) was added to the portfolio.  
- Precious Metals:  About 40% of the position in Gold (GLD) was sold during the middle part of the month. 
- Currencies: The size of the Short Euro (EUO) position was increased by about 40% in the middle of the month.  Together with the change in the Gold position (see above) this reflected Our Man’s more bullish view on the US Dollar.

Performance Review  
February continued the portfolio’s recent trend of disappointing months, ending down -1.5% and leaving the portfolio -2.5 YTD.

Despite the positive equity markets, it has again been the equity-orientated books that have been the main driver’s of the disappointing performance.  The Value Equity book (-22bps) fell after THRX drifted lower though the major short-term newsflow, an FDA decision, is not expected until May.  Then Energy Efficiency book (-59bps) also hampered performance, falling on the back of a disappointing quarter for XIDE – while there continue to be positive medium and long-term trends for the company, they’ve largely been overshadowed by the disappointing short-term news that continues to come out.

The Other Equity book (-33bps) also contributed negatively, after the Italian equity markets (EWI) weakened significantly following the elections there.  The Italian election saw no party win a majority and the parties that stand against austerity do better than expected, all of which resulted in a lot of uncertainty…something that’s rarely looked upon favourably by the markets.    

The US Dollar continued to strengthen over the course of the month, which hurt the Precious Metals book (-69bps) but aided the Currencies book (+47bps) as the Euro showed signs of hitting an important peak against the dollar.  Elsewhere the Bonds Funds (-0bps), NCAV book (-6bps) and Puts/Hedges (-6bps) had a very limited impact on performance.

Portfolio (as at 2/28 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate) 
20.0% - Bond/Absolute Return Funds (DLTNX and HSTRX) 
7.1% - Precious Metals (GLD) 
5.7% - Value Idea Equities (THRX, and DRWI) 
3.2% - Other Equities (GREK, and EWI)  
2.3% - Energy Efficiency (AXPW, and XIDE) 
1.8% - NCAV Equities 

-0.0% - China-Related Thesis (no positions) 
-2.6% - Hedges/Put Options (premium of 11bps in XLP Jan-14 puts, 33bps in XLB Jan-14 puts and 15bps in EWG Jan-14 puts)  

-16.4% - Currencies (EUO – Short Euro)  

51.0% - Cash 

Disclaimer:  For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned.  He also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you.