2026: Second Quarter Review

Portfolio Update 
- Uranium (URNJ): Exited at the end of April – a couple of months later than ideal, as flagged last quarter. OM is now more actively using technical signals to help time position sizing; having ignored the first warning in January, he acted on the second in April.

- Crypto/China/India: Exited the remaining stub positions mid-quarter.

Together, these exits pushed cash above 25% by quarter-end. Part of this is a timing mismatch – capital left Crypto, India and China before new ideas (Brazil) were sized up. That, plus a likely re-investment in Uranium, should bring cash down in the third quarter.

Performance and Review
Our Man’s portfolio rose +4.3% during the second quarter, substantially lagging both the S&P 500 TR (+15.2%) and the MSCI World (+14.0%). The portfolio underperformed in every month of the quarter – rising in April (+6.5%), well behind the index rally, then falling outright in May (-0.2%) and June (-1.8%) while markets continued higher.

For the year, the portfolio (+8.5%) sits a little behind the S&P 500 TR (+10.2%) and MSCI World (+10.4%).

The medium-term history of the portfolio is below: 

 

Second Quarter Attribution

 
There are few surprises behind the underperformance: an average of ~20% cash during the quarter, no direct AI exposure, and weak commodity performance. The cash drag isn’t as bad as it looks – about one-third of it came from exiting URNJ at a small profit, which helped avoid a 20%+ loss over the rest of the quarter.

OM was late to recognize AI’s demand pull through the supply chain and missed the initial move, choosing instead to hold indirect exposure – through the US Reindustrialization theme (data centers, grid buildout, etc.) and Commodities (metals used in chips and power). That indirect exposure worked well over the last year but got hurt in Q2 as capital rotated hard into direct AI/growth names. Nothing changed in the theses on Uranium (-261bps) and Commodities (-40bps) – capital simply rotated out, and that will happen intermittently.

Not investing in HBM/DRAM manufacturers was a major error of omission. The setup mirrors Shipping/Tankers, Tin and Uranium: supply is fixed, demand jumps, and price is the variable that adjusts.  AI data centers need HBM (high-bandwidth memory) to feed GPU clusters, and it draws roughly 3x the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per bit; manufacturers are shifting production toward HBM’s better margins, tightening conventional DRAM supply and pushing DRAM prices up 90%+ per quarter. OM has known this was coming for almost a year but wasn’t invested.  Before April 2026 this was because there was no effective way to own it; the manufacturers are mostly single non-US companies (Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia), there was no dedicated ETF, and the names were too small a slice of broad semiconductor ETFs to matter.  This changed with the April 2026 launch of a Roundhill DRAM Memory ETF. The sin was knowing this ETF was launching but not acting. The excuses are the usual ones – “up too much already,” “wait for a pullback,” “don’t want to buy the top” – and none of them really matter.
This is a recurring lesson for OM, tied to his personality and approach rather than a rule for everyone, and a reminder of why investing is hard.  It is better to be early and small than not there at all, and if you can't be early but do have conviction then at least be small. It's easier to size up an existing position than start a new one.

The rest of the portfolio held up well:
-    European/UK Financials (+200bps) began to re-rate on strong results – particularly returns on tangible equity – aggressive buybacks, and analyst upgrades.
-    US Reindustrialization (+184bps) benefited from capital rotating toward direct AI beneficiaries.
-    Tin (+155bps) prices remained strong – Alphamin Resources returned ~10% of its market cap as a dividend, though the stocks remain underappreciated by the market.
-    Carbon Credit Allowances (+101bps) strengthened after CARB removed the policy overhang and began finalizing steeper cap-tightening trajectories (10-14% per annum vs. 4% previously).
-    Argentina (+74bps) banks benefited from continued pro-market reform, accelerating private credit growth, and healthy net interest income.
 

Shipping/Tankers (+4bps) and Idiosyncratic Equities (-0bps) were flat.  The exited stub positions added small gains: India (+5bps), China (+5bps) and Blockchain/Crypto (+6bps).

Portfolio (as at 6/30/26 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 33.7%
14.1% - Uranium (URNM)
6.9% - Argentina (BMA, GGAL, SUPV)
6.6% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
6.1% - Commodities/Mining (LUNMF, TLOFF, PMCOF and IVPAF)

Thematic: 37.4%
10.4% - US Reindustrialization (AIRR)
10.2% - European/UK Financials (BCS, LYG, NWG)
9.2% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, TNK, DHT and FRO)
7.6% - Carbon Credit Allowances (KCCA)

Idiosyncratic: 2.5%
2.5% - Equities (JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%

Cash: 26.3%

Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. While Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned, that alone is a terrible reason for anyone else to be. Our Man also holds some cash and a few other positions (of negligible value). Investors should always do their own work and make decisions based on their own circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance—and not because Our Man happened to mention something here. 

Things from my Newsblur; 2026 Part I

It's been a while since OM's last Things from my Newsblur, and the reading pile has not disappointed. This edition runs the full gamut — from the personal to the philosophical to the financial — with a few pieces that, on the surface, seem unrelated but share a common thread: what happens when we stop valuing the things that actually matter.

Proof You Can Do Hard Things
Something OM tries to instill in his kids — do hard things, not because they're useful, but because proving to yourself that you can is the whole point.
(Nat Eliason’s Newsletter)

The Decline of Deviance
The world is getting less weird — and not just in the ways you'd expect. Fewer cults and teenage pregnancies is a good thing, but there's also less original art, stranger architecture, and scientists willing to rock the boat. This isn't because of the internet — it started long before. When life gets safer and more comfortable, the incentive to be genuinely strange and creative quietly disappears. 
(Adam Mastroianni, Experiment History)

10 Questions to Answer Before You Die 

Avoiding death planning doesn't protect you or the people you love — it just moves the chaos to the worst possible moment. A practical, no-excuses guide to the things that actually matter; not just the financial stuff, but the conversations, the medical decisions, and the things left unsaid.
(Maura Mcinerney-Rowley, Hello, Mortal)

Your Power Tools Got Worse on Purpose
OM isn't a tool guy, but this is what happens when people who don't make things buy the people who do. Two conglomerates hoovered up every tool brand on the shelf — one invested and left the craftsmen alone; the other optimized the financials and extracted all the value until there was nothing left.  You've already seen this happen in other industries whose products you do use! 

(Keyana Sapp, Worse on Purpose)

The Ethiopian Running Secret
Ethiopian runners dominate marathons while largely rejecting the data-driven individualized training that Western sports science swears by. Have we become so seduced by quantification that we've stopped recognizing expertise that doesn't come with a spreadsheet attached?
(Michael Crowley, AEON)

The Bezzle and the Bull Market
Bull markets make us all 'feel' wealthier - and that feeling makes fraud, illusion, and self-deception much easier to sustain. Nobody questions things when everyone's getting rich.  The reckoning always comes later.
(Novel Investor)

Two Takes on New Fed Chair Ken Warsh
Ken Warsh (Claudia Sahm, Stay-At-Home-Macro)
Weighing Warsh (Marvin Barth, Seriously, Marvin?!) 

Most of the commentary has focused on whether Warsh is a hawk or a dove but is it the wrong question? 

Sahm's piece uses his 2010 FOMC record to argue he's unfit for the role. 

Marvin Barth has a completely different view; Warsh represents a genuine philosophical rejection of how the Fed has operated for the last 16 years. If he's right, the debate isn't about interest rates but about whether the post-2008 central banking experiment was a mistake.

2026: First Quarter Review

Portfolio Update 
- After an extended period without the anticipated rebound, OM exited substantially all Blockchain exposure (with Bitcoin at approximately ~$75K). While the position was given time to recover, that near-term bounce did not materialize as expected and OM exited.  OM may look to re-enter at more attractive levels should a broader market dislocation occur. 

-  OM also exited almost all the India exposure. The decision reflects relative opportunity set considerations rather than concerns with the underlying thesis, with similar investments (notably Brazil) offering more compelling risk/reward at this stage.

-  Following a strong start to the year, OM trimmed its US Reindustrialization exposure after it reached approximately ~12% of NAV.  The theme remains core, supported by continued momentum in domestic industrial policy and infrastructure investment. However, given strong performance and elevated positioning, partial de-risking was appropriate. The portfolio retains meaningful exposure.

Cash now sits at ~15% of NAV. Despite this, the portfolio remains positioned for volatility, with a meaningful allocation to dislocation-driven and commodity-linked exposures.

Performance and Review
Our Man’s portfolio rose +4.0% during the first quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 TR (-4.3%) and the MSCI World (-3.2%).  However, performance was marked by elevated volatility; with strong gains in January (+13.2%) and February (+1.6%) followed by a sharp pullback March (-9.6%).   

The volatility reflected the underlying positioning—particularly exposure to commodities and US Reindustrialization—both of which are sensitive to shifts in sentiment and risk appetite. Early strength provided an opportunity to reduce exposure selectively, though OM could have been more aggressive (e.g. Uranium).

The medium-term history of the portfolio is below:

 

First Quarter Attribution

The first quarter was unusual and, at times, chaotic. January in particular saw a near indiscriminate rally across most positions, with the notable exceptions of Blockchain/Crypto and India. That kind of broad price action across the portfolio is typically not sustainable and, in OM’s experience, is better used to reduce risk than chase further upside. 

Uranium (+347bps) and US Reindustrialization (+147bps) were the primary drivers of performance.

Uranium continues to reflect a structural supply-demand imbalance. Demand is increasingly supported by reactor life extensions and new project pipelines, while market pricing still assumes a relatively efficient supply response that has yet to show signs of materializing at scale. The disconnect remains in expectations rather than fundamentals.

US Reindustrialization reflects a broader policy-driven shift toward domestic capacity rebuilding. Markets continue to underweight the durability of this trend, treating decades of deindustrialization as structurally irreversible rather than a policy choice. That gap between perception and policy trajectory remains the core driver of returns, though it also increases sensitivity to sentiment shifts.

Elsewhere, Tin (+10bps) and broader Commodities (-9bps) ended the quarter roughly flat, but not without significant volatility along the way.

Shipping/Tankers (+374bps) was again a meaningful contributor during a time of uncertainty in the oil markets. Disruptions in key transit routes—most notably around the Strait of Hormuz—have increased effective shipping distances and constrained effective supply, pushing rates higher. We’ve seen versions of this before: when routes become inefficient, short-term tanker earnings can move well beyond even best-case assumptions.  The question is always duration. These conditions don’t persist indefinitely, but they also don’t normalize quickly. In the interim, capital allocation discipline across the sector has improved, with a greater share of earnings being returned to shareholders. Valuations reflect reasonable normalized earnings, though the position is expected to naturally decline over time as dividends are realized

The Idiosyncratic Equity position in JOE contributed +16bps.

Losses were broadly distributed, with the largest detractors coming from European/UK Financials (-131bps), Argentina (-126bps), and China (-44bps). The common factor was rising macroeconomic uncertainty, compounded by geopolitical risk, including US/Israel-Iran tensions and ongoing US-China frictions (e.g. the postponed Trump-Xi meeting didn’t help sentiment).

Carbon Credit Allowances (-98bps) were again a detractor. While the regulatory direction remains supportive over the medium term, the sizable impacts were pushed further into 2028, later than expected. This timing shift weighed on near-term pricing, despite reinforcing the longer-term supply tightness thesis.  At current levels, prices are approaching the regulatory floor price, which should limit downside. The upside case depends on whether CARB successfully implements the changes in a timely manner over the next ~6 months. The obvious risk is political—energy affordability is an easy place for pressure to build, particularly if broader geopolitical issues persist – though Governor Newsom is incentivized to encourage implementation before his term ends.

The India (-19bps) and Blockchain/Crypto (-69bps) were largely crystallized in early February as the positions were exited.


Portfolio (as at 1/1/26 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 47.5%
24.6% - Uranium (URNM & URNJ)
6.8% - Commodities/Mining (LUNMF, TLOFF, PMCOF and IVPAF)
6.6% - Argentina (BMA, GGAL, SUPV)
5.8% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
3.7% - China (KWEB, FXI and JD)

Thematic: 35.5%
10.0% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, TNK, DHT and FRO)
9.1% - US Reindustrialization (AIRR)
8.8% - European/UK Financials (BCS, LYG, NWG)
6.9% - Carbon Credit Allowances (KCCA)
<1.0% each in residual Blockchain/Crypto and India

Idiosyncratic: 2.6%
2.6% - Equities (JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%

Cash: 14.3%

Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. While Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned, that alone is a terrible reason for anyone else to be. Our Man also holds some cash and a few other positions (of negligible value). Investors should always do their own work and make decisions based on their own circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance—and not because Our Man happened to mention something here.

2025: Fourth Quarter Review

Portfolio Update 
All portfolio additions this quarter were in Commodities/Mining, with new positions in Ivanhoe Mines (IVPAF), Prospector Metals (PMCOF), and Talon Metals (TLOFF, see here for external in-depth write-up on Talon). Longtime readers will recognize the central theme across OM’s portfolio: supply deficits created by years of under-investment, now colliding with modest demand growth. OM discussed this dynamic in detail ~18 months ago in the context of Uranium, Tin, and Tankers, and it has continued to strengthen.

What has changed is timing. While under-investment has been widespread across commodities for over a decade, it is only now coming to a head as supply deficits begin to emerge, demand increases, and industrial supply chains re-orient. This has been further compounded by a growing recognition that much of global supply for key commodities sits in jurisdictions unfriendly to the West. 

OM’s Commodities/Mining exposure reflects this setup and is focused on high-quality deposits that had secured financing prior to OM’s investment, providing a longer runway toward production.  To better reflect this shift, OM has reclassified Commodities and Tin from a “Theme” to a “Dislocation” for 2026.

Performance and Review
Our Man’s portfolio continued its strong run in the fourth quarter, rising 7.1% though performance was volatile (Oct: +9.2%, Nov: -4.8%, and Dec: +3.0%).  This comfortably outperformed both the S&P 500 TR (+2.7%) and the MSCI World (+3.4%).

The strong final quarter meant the portfolio returned +36.3% for 2025, well ahead of the broader markets (S&P 500 TR: +17.9%; MSCI World: +18.4%).

As a couple of folks have asked, here is the medium-term history of the portfolio:

Fourth Quarter Attribution

Argentina (+476bps) was the largest contributor, recovering roughly two-thirds of its 2025 losses after President Milei’s party performed strongly in the midterms.  This eased concerns that his reform agenda would need to be scaled back. While the position’s performance in 2025 was frustrating, this largely reflected portfolio management errors - most notably not trimming after the outsized gains in 2024 - rather than any material deterioration in the underlying thesis.

UK/European Financials (+200bps) continue to perform strongly, suggesting that the market is not only being driven by the MAG7/AI! The position has contributed positively in each of its nine quarters in the portfolio, with the ADRs of Barclays and NatWest up ~250% (or roughly twice the MAG7). It is a reminder of the excess returns available when stocks are genuinely cheap and paired with changes that the market has yet to fully appreciate. While these names remain relatively inexpensive, they are no longer dislocated. The market now recognizes the earnings benefits of higher rates, leaving the final phase of performance as a rerating driven by more consistent and predictable earnings growth. As a result, OM has moved European Financials from the Dislocation to the Thematic bucket for 2026, and the position is likely to be reduced over time.

Commodities (+149bps) and Tin (+149bps) were beneficiaries of a broader repricing of supply-chain and geopolitical risk. During the quarter, China’s tightening of export controls on rare earth elements served as a reminder of how concentrated—and politically fragile—many commodity supply chains remain. This coincided with growing evidence that years of under-investment are now translating into physical tightness, particularly in smaller markets where incremental demand can have an outsized price impact.  OM suspects many market participants have forgotten how aggressively these smaller markets can move, or haven’t been around long enough to know.

Uranium (-180bps) detracted, largely due to positioning and expectations rather than any deterioration in the longer-term fundamentals. Market optimism around Uranium’s formal inclusion on the US critical minerals list had built into prices, and delays caused by the government shutdown led to disappointment and near-term pressure across the complex.

US Reindustrialization (+21bps) and Idiosyncratic (+47bps) contributed as domestic industrial exposure continued to benefit from resilient US growth and ongoing capital spending tied to reshoring and infrastructure investment. The US Reindustrialization ETF, in particular, extended gains made earlier in the year, ending up over 30%, as mid-cap industrials remained tied to long-term capital expenditure themes rather than cyclical slowdowns.  Smaller gains came from Carbon Credit Allowances (+12bps), Tankers/Shipping (+6bps), and India (+5bps).

China (-54bps) detracted following renewed political tensions with the US, which weighed on sentiment. Chinese equities performed well over 2025, and after a year of improving liquidity there are early signs of economic recovery. After a lost half-decade and with investor interest still limited, Chinese equities may be worth watching in 2026. 

Blockchain/Crypto (-123bps) positions were a disappointment; OM failed to follow his own advice to exit at the end of Q3.   Such an exit would have been near the all-time highs, instead he overthought and overcomplicated the position, based on an extended global liquidity into mid-2026.   Given the sharpness of the descent, OM will look to exit on a bounce during Q1-26.


Portfolio (as at 1/1/26 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate)
Dislocations: 48.1%
22.4% - Uranium (URNM & URNJ)
8.2% - Argentina (BMA, GGAL, SUPV)
7.2% - Commodities/Mining (LUNMF, TLOFF, PMCOF and IVPAF)
6.0% - Tin (AFMJF, MLXEF and SBWFF)
4.3% - China (KWEB, FXI and JD)

Thematic: 44.1%
11.6% - US Reindustrialization (AIRR)
10.6% - European/UK Financials (BCS, LYG, NWG)
8.2% - Carbon Credit Allowances (KCCA)
7.0% - Shipping/Tankers (STNG, INSW, TNK, DHT and FRO)
3.8% - India (IBN, INDA and SMIN)
2.9% - Blockchain/Crypto (IBIT, ETHE/ETH and BBBY)

Idiosyncratic: 2.6%
2.6% - Equities (JOE)

Shorts/Hedges: 0.0%

Cash: 5.3%

Disclaimer: Nothing above should be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. While Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned, that alone is a terrible reason for anyone else to be. Our Man also holds some cash and a few other positions (of negligible value). Investors should always do their own work and make decisions based on their own circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance—and not because Our Man happened to mention something here.