Portfolio Update: Some 2014 & 2015 Thoughts…

2014 has largely been a year of missed opportunities for OM, some unfortunate (e.g. what eventually turned out to be a false sell signal in the Technical book) but most self-inflicted; predominantly mistakes of omission than mistakes of commission.   This is broadly represented in a consistent theme that you’ve seen since Our Man started running the book; a significant level of underinvestment, too often caused by OM waiting for the perfect price to enter (or add to) a name rather than starting to build a position at a good price (i.e. with a sufficient margin of safety) and seek to build it should it decline further.  Thus, the big aim for 2015 and 2016, is to get better at this…

Some things that are interesting OM for 2015, and beyond… 
- International Book - Argentina:  This is one of those positions that falls into the mistakes of omission, since OM has been waiting to put on a position since Argentina defaulted on its debt over the summer.  On the surface there’s very little good to say about Argentina; the country is in an acrimonious fight with some bond hold-outs from its last default resulting in another default, the economy is terrible with high inflation, a weakening currency (which trades at both official vs. unofficial prices) and high interest rates.    Given that, why Our Man’s interest?  Well, everyone knows all of the above and despite the huge rally in stocks, they’re still cheap by any definition.  However, this is with good reason; high and volatile interest rates, mean banks only lend short term, which means businesses on focus on the short-term and eschew investments where the future return may be substantial.  Ditto for investors, who rightly value short-term cashflow or earnings far more heavily than any future earnings, due to the high discount rate.  The opportunity lies in that during 2015, there are ‘events’ that could change this paradigm; (i) it becomes a lot easier to negotiate with the bond holdouts as the calendar turns to 2015 (due to the expiration of a clause in the restructured bonds), and more importantly (ii) the current President cannot seek a third term, with all 3 major candidates promising a break from the Kirchner's (Cristina Kirchner has been President since 2007, and her husband was President for the 4 years prior) style and policies.  Therein lies the upside potential – the hope of a sensibly governed Argentina (perhaps even with an independent Central Bank), with its limited fiscal deficit and debt, and having ability to return to international capital markets would lead to a falling in the risk premium and corporations focusing on maximizing return (including future growth) rather than just surviving.  The downside, is yet more of what we’ve already seen, which is largely priced into the markets.  Given the lack of a good ETF, OM began investing in a small basket of positions in Argentina to get exposure during December.

- Equity - Oil/Gas related:  The decimation in the Energy markets has been amazing to watch, with the Russell 2000 Energy losing around half its value in the last 6 months and many individual names suffering far more heavily than that!  The sharp fall in oil has also reopened many of the debates about fracking and how the US Shale boom has been funded.  From a historical analog, there are certain similarities to what happened in 1985/86, when an influx of new production from the North Sea increased supply and saw the Saudis choose to maintain market share in a period of weakish demand, leading to a 60%+ decline in WTI within a 6month period despite ongoing Middle Eastern tensions; for 2014, substitute in US Shale (where production increased 1mn barrels per day in 2013, and likely 1.7mn bpd in 2014) for North Sea.  In short, Our Man thinks there are going to be things to do to in Energy during 2015, but we’ve yet to see the numerous corporate casualties (other than in their stock prices) that indicate it will be a better time to look for those that might be winners.  As such, OM’s exposure will continue to remain of the toe-dipping variety, but don’t be surprised if you start to see some Energy names in the Equity book next year.

- Equity – Internet:  OM loves the Internet and at this point, who doesn’t?  Be it shopping, catching up on the highlights from the big game, keeping in touch with family and friends or just doing one’s work, the Internet is pervasive*.  OM doubts it’s even an argument whether the Internet is this generation’s defining contribution and theme**, and like many of the prior themes it’s not only reshaping our world but is a key force of the deflationary pressure that we’re seeing globally.  The Tech Bubble of the late 90’s was clearly the very early innings, but it’s hard to say how far into the game we are currently.  While OM loves the Internet, he struggles to buy positions in a world where valuation is based on Total Addressable Markets (TAMs, or how big a company’s market “could” be) that can be almost anything and where low rates mean the value of future growth is vastly more important than the value of any profitability in the near-term (i.e. $100 at the end of 5years is worth ~$62 today at a 10% discount rate vs. ~$90-$91 today at a 2% discount rate).  Thus OM has only really been a buyer of Internet stocks at times when they’ve been sold aggressively (e.g. early last year); expect this to continue into 2015.  But like this year's Internet exposure, OM hopes that each time he invests in these sell-offs there will be a name or two that becomes longer-term holdings for the portfolio (like VIPS and TWTR in 2014).

* Furthermore people have now largely accepted the Faustian bargain of the Internet; that it is “free” to use and “cheap” to buy things on, BUT in exchange for all your personal data, whose protection & safety is currently not a priority for anybody be it individuals or corporations.
 **OM will leave it historians to argue how it compares to the Railroad, the industrialization of manufacturing driven by oil/gas, the Automobile, etc.

November 2014 Review

Portfolio Update  
- Technical:  Much to OM’s chagrin, the moves in the indices in early November confirmed that that the late-September/early-October signal had indeed been a false ‘sell’ signal.  As such, OM is watching the market and looking for the right entry point to get back into the Technical book’s positions.

Performance Review  
October proved a volatile month for the market, though somewhat less so for OM’s book, which ended +209bps for the month, putting the YTD performance at +6.0%.

The driver of performance was OM’s currency exposure, specifically the portfolio’s large Long US Dollar exposure.  The Currencies book (+158bps) was up strongly on the month, driven by the position in YCS (Short Yen/Long USD) which contributed 140bps, most of which came very late in the month after the Japanese Central Bank announced plans to further increase their QE.  The China Thesis (+90bps) saw contributions both from CROC (+55bps) as the Australian Dollar weakened, and from CAF (+35bps) as Chinese A-Shares strengthened.

Though the equity markets rose during October, OM’s equity proved unprofitable costing the portfolio around 64bps.  The losses were caused by the Theravance positions (THRX/THBP, -41bps combined) as fears continued that the take-up of the products is below expecations, and the position in EOX (-52bps) which continued to fall together with the ever declining oil price.  The Internation/Country book (+28bps) posted a healthy gain, while the Absolute/Bond Fund (+4bps), Puts/Hedges (0bps) and Energy Efficiency (-6bps) had limited impact on performance.

Portfolio (as at 11/30 - all delta and leverage adjusted, as appropriate) 
18.7% - Equities (EOX, RDY, TBPH, THRX, TTM, TWTR & VIPS) 
8.0% - International/Country (GREK & GVAL)
4.2% - Bond/Absolute Return Funds (DLTNX)
0.1% - Energy Efficiency (AXPW, and XIDE)

 -0.0% - Hedges/Put Options (premium of less than 5bps EWZ and EWJ Jan-15 puts) 

-14.8% - China-Related Thesis (CROC – Short Australian Dollar, partially offset by CAF – Long Chinese A-Shares) 
-57.6% - Currencies (EUO – Short Euro, YCS – Short Japanese Yen)

27.9% - Cash 

Disclaimer:  For added clarity, Our Man is invested in all of the securities mentioned.  He also holds some cash and a few other securities (of negligible value).  You should not buy any of these securities because Our Man has mentioned them, but should do your own work and decide what’s best for you.